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ELECTION AFTERMATH: Republican voters didn't show up at the polls
San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 11/10/6 | John Wildermuth

Posted on 11/10/2006 9:51:00 AM PST by SmithL

California's Republican voters stayed home in droves on election day, as preliminary figures show voter turnout falling well below the state average in some of the most reliably GOP parts of the state.

Although the final totals won't be known for weeks, election day turnout in Fresno, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and SanDiego counties, which all have Republican pluralities, ran as much as 10 percentage points below the state's 44 percent average turnout.

"The turnout in Republican counties was low compared to the turnout in counties where Democrats hold the edge,'' said Patrick Dorinson, a spokesman for the state Republican Party. "The conservative Republican base didn't show up.''

Without that anticipated flood of votes from places such as Orange County and the Inland Empire, Tuesday was a long night for most of the statewide Republican candidates not named Arnold Schwarzenegger.

"It came as a surprise,'' admitted Stan Devereaux, a spokesman for Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, who lost the lieutenant governor's race to Democratic Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi. "We kept looking at the returns through the night and thought we had a chance, but when the returns (from Republican counties) came in, we didn't get the turnout we expected.''

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: california; elections; governator; schwarzenegger
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To: mwl1

{We lost the independents 3:2 and with them went the close elections. In particular, we lost the "security Moms" and Catholics, both mostly due to Iraq and corruption in localized districts.}

Ditto. Notice in the final pre-election polls, the RATS actually ended up doing better than the polls. The late minute undecideds swing to the RATS. As a result, we got zapped.


121 posted on 11/10/2006 7:18:46 PM PST by Kuksool (Leanred more about political science on FR than in college)
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To: NormsRevenge

Parental notification ballot also got zapped in OR. I suspect that the voters in my own state, IL, would vote down such sensible policy.

The failures of these ballots prove that the blue states are hopeless.


122 posted on 11/10/2006 7:25:10 PM PST by Kuksool (Leanred more about political science on FR than in college)
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To: lainie

ping


123 posted on 11/10/2006 8:22:19 PM PST by StarFan
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To: SmithL

So if they stayed home rather than vote for a RINO Gov, they denied their state of a potentially great Lt. Governor (McClintock) and would've been 2010 Governor Candidate.


124 posted on 11/10/2006 8:23:49 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: L98Fiero

We had a record turn out locally -- 46%


125 posted on 11/10/2006 8:24:12 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: Dems_R_Losers

McClintock is the real deal and they hurt him bigtime.


126 posted on 11/10/2006 8:25:01 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: StarFan
I'll say this at the risk of incurring flames. The interesting thing to me is, with everyone from Newt to Rush blaming "republicanism" (vs. "conservatism"), that's exactly what California voted FOR...with the exception of any R's that aren't, you know. Arnold type R's. People can spin it 100 different ways. (One more possible one: with enough people voting for Arnold, that must mean democrats in CA are turning right! ugh) The bottom line is that CA isn't like everywhere else. And, I think Newt and Rush are correct in their assessment, but that's almost an afterthought here.

In conclusion, I think it's hard to mobilize a base that's given up.

127 posted on 11/10/2006 10:13:19 PM PST by lainie
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To: L98Fiero
Certainly not true in OH...I have been reading both parties had good turnouts.

Yes but did the Republicans vote Republican after they drew the curtain in the voting booth?

128 posted on 11/10/2006 10:15:23 PM PST by ARCADIA (Abuse of power comes as no surprise)
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To: calcowgirl

Thank you. That's what I heard, but nothing like cold hard spreadsheet to put kibosh on the arguments. ;~)

I said from the beginning: "Ignore the polls, turnout is the key", turned out it was.


129 posted on 11/11/2006 1:33:07 AM PST by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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To: CutePuppy

You're welcome.

I should note that the numbers keep changing as the lagging absentee ballots are counted. While those may be counted in the next week, it will probably be a month or more before the numbers are final and certified. Regardless, it gives an indication.


130 posted on 11/11/2006 1:35:50 AM PST by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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To: martinidon
It was not the Republican base that didn't show up it was the Independents and the Democratic base that did the Republicans in.

Wrong -- and the "after action" reports of the percentage of registered republicans that showed up, vs 2002 (mid term) and 2004 is very clear -- 6-10% in each state less -- MUCH more than was needed to keep the Senate (SCOTUS! and judges) and possibly even the house.
131 posted on 11/11/2006 1:42:53 AM PST by Jackson Brown (ANYONE who knew the democrats, yet stayed home and helped them take congress is an enemy of the US!)
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To: stockstrader
The Polls tightened up at the end and what was predicted was in the margin of error.

Just a few thousand votes the other way would have made the polls totally wrong.

A large number of independents (it was said) did not even decide on who to vote for until a couple of days before the election, and most broke for the Democrats.

When the GOP wins lets see how accurate the polls are on that one.

132 posted on 11/11/2006 3:12:39 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Am I therefore become your enemy because I tell you the truth? (Gal.4:16))
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To: fortheDeclaration
You said,

"Just a few thousand votes the other way would have made the polls totally wrong".

Geeee, no kidding (rolling eyes). But that MAKES MY POINT, THEY WERE ACCURATE. You can't "BUT IF" it.

You could make that same comment about Pres Bush's election in 2000 (in Florida or a few other states). You could make that same comment about the President's election in 2004 (in Ohio and a few other states). You could say that about ANY election. You could make sports analogies like that (if it wasn't for that home run in the 9th, if it wasn't for that touchdown before halftime, etc). No offense, but that is a stupid comment--nothing personal. "What if's" do NOT refute that FACT that they were accurate.

You also said,

"When the GOP wins lets see how accurate the polls are on that one".

Guess what, we already have. The same RCP poll aggregation was incredibly accurate in 2004 too!! The final RCP collective poll results showed President Bush with a margin of just over a 1% the NIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTON. THAT IS EXACTLY what he won by!! EXACTLY the margin. Please look it up.

That poll 'trashing' here is just ridiculous. I just get sick and tired of every poll posted here on FR getting totally trashed--just because Freepers don't happen to like what that poll says. Biases or not (and yes, there are biases--the ONLY poll withOUT a bias is the actual election), polling has gotten incredibly more accurate in the last decade--and as a politician (or even a pundit like we are on here) they are to be ignored, tossed aside, or dismissed 'at your peril'.

133 posted on 11/11/2006 8:07:52 AM PST by stockstrader ("Where government advances--and it advances relentlessly--freedom is imperiled"-Janice Rogers Brown)
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To: stockstrader
The polls are meaningless since the margin of error falls within 3-5%.

All they did was predict a close election and stated who they thought would pull it out.

How did they do in 94?

In 2006?

The polls had the Democrats in a massive win, and then towards the end the inevitable tightening to the margin of error of 3%, in other words, either side could have won it.

Sometimes the weather man gets it right also, but I don't bet the farm on it.

134 posted on 11/11/2006 8:14:44 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Am I therefore become your enemy because I tell you the truth? (Gal.4:16))
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To: SmithL
California's Republican voters stayed home in droves on election day, as preliminary figures show voter turnout falling well below the state average in some of the most reliably GOP parts of the state.

Although the final totals won't be known for weeks, election day turnout in Fresno, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties, which all have Republican pluralities, ran as much as 10 percentage points below the state's 44 percent average turnout.


Comparing 2006 to 2002, since '02 was also a gubernatorial election, the turnout in GOP counties in California was generally worse, although the overall turnout percentage also decreased.


Among the 21 counties with over 150k registered voters each, totalling 88.5% of California's 15.8 million registered voters, red(Bush) counties generally had significant turnout percentage losses, while blue(Kerry) counties had minor losses or even modest gains. Blue counties generally had better turnout than red counties in 2006, whereas turnout was more uniform in 2002.


Below is a table of the registration and turnout data for the top 21 counties, as of Nov 12, 2006, sorted by gain in the percentage of voter turnout.

			2002	2002	2002	2006	2006	2006	'06-'02		2004 President
			Reg'd	Ballots	%	Reg'd	Ballots	%	Turnout		Red/Blue
County Name		Voters	Cast	Turnout	Voters  Cast  	Turnout  Gain		County vote
____________________________________________________________________________________
Sacramento   		577156	320222	55.4	624444	254901	40.8	-14.6		even (Kerry, barely)
Riverside   		649670	309952	47.7	754986	260591	34.5	-13.2		Bush
Ventura   		391160	199708	51	391077	156283	40	-11		Bush
San Bernardino   	616402	294151	47.7	751652	276454	36.8	-10.9		Bush
San Joaquin   		247624	123783	49.9	270356	112965	41.8	-8.1		Bush
Alameda   		662339	350914	52.9	678765	306810	45.2	-7.7		Kerry
Kern   			259786	138087	53.1	289233	132106	45.7	-7.4		Bush
San Luis Obispo		140659	83903	59.6	155495	81290	52.3	-7.3		Bush
Santa Barbara  		194672	115488	59.3	183890	96417	52.4	-6.9		Kerry
San Mateo   		332070	174449	52.5	350427	162810	46.5	-6		Kerry
Stanislaus   		212642	95175	44.7	207162	81454	39.3	-5.4		Bush
Orange   		1298892	641784	49.4	1497365	670270	44.8	-4.6		Bush
San Francisco   	449396	224990	50	418285	190186	45.5	-4.5		Kerry
Placer			154130	87059	56.4	177539	93956	52.9	-3.5		Bush
Contra Costa   		484640	268415	55.3	486441	260155	53.5	-1.8		Kerry
San Diego   		1411808	683062	48.3	1381835	666650	48.2	-0.1		Bush
Fresno   		344359	155205	45	331968	154177	46.4	1.4		Bush
Los Angeles   		3976189	1768369	44.4	3914138	1839366	47	2.6		Kerry
Santa Clara   		731633	373267	51	749866	404401	53.9	2.9		Kerry
Sonoma   		232808	124870	53.6	234891	138128	58.8	5.2		Kerry
Solano   		175819	91280	51.9	163235	98881	60.6	8.7		Kerry
____________________________________________________________________________________
Statewide 	     15303469	7594228	49.6  15837108  7334443	46.3	-3.3		Kerry



This phenomenon is noticeable especially among the largest counties by voter registration, the top five of which together comprise 52.4% of the state's registered voters. It is very apparent that three of the five largest Bush counties had double-digit depressed turnout compared to 2002 and the large Kerry counties had higher rates of voter turnout compared to large Bush counties in 2006.


Below is a table of the registration and turnout data for the top 21 counties, as of Nov 12, 2006, sorted by the number of registered voters in 2006.

		2002	2002	2002	2006	2006	2006	'06-'02		2004 President
		Reg'd	Ballots	%	Reg'd	Ballots	%	Turnout		Red/Blue
County Name	Voters	Cast	Turnout	Voters  Cast  	Turnout  Gain		County vote
____________________________________________________________________________________
Los Angeles   	3976189	1768369	44.4	3914138	1839366	47	2.6		Kerry
Orange   	1298892	641784	49.4	1497365	670270	44.8	-4.6		Bush
San Diego   	1411808	683062	48.3	1381835	666650	48.2	-0.1		Bush
Riverside   	649670	309952	47.7	754986	260591	34.5	-13.2		Bush
San Bernardino  616402	294151	47.7	751652	276454	36.8	-10.9		Bush
Santa Clara   	731633	373267	51	749866	404401	53.9	2.9		Kerry
Alameda   	662339	350914	52.9	678765	306810	45.2	-7.7		Kerry
Sacramento   	577156	320222	55.4	624444	254901	40.8	-14.6		even (Kerry, barely)
Contra Costa   	484640	268415	55.3	486441	260155	53.5	-1.8		Kerry
San Francisco   449396	224990	50	418285	190186	45.5	-4.5		Kerry
Ventura   	391160	199708	51	391077	156283	40	-11		Bush
San Mateo   	332070	174449	52.5	350427	162810	46.5	-6		Kerry
Fresno   	344359	155205	45	331968	154177	46.4	1.4		Bush
Kern   		259786	138087	53.1	289233	132106	45.7	-7.4		Bush
San Joaquin   	247624	123783	49.9	270356	112965	41.8	-8.1		Bush
Sonoma   	232808	124870	53.6	234891	138128	58.8	5.2		Kerry
Stanislaus   	212642	95175	44.7	207162	81454	39.3	-5.4		Bush
Santa Barbara  	194672	115488	59.3	183890	96417	52.4	-6.9		Kerry
Placer		154130	87059	56.4	177539	93956	52.9	-3.5		Bush
Solano   	175819	91280	51.9	163235	98881	60.6	8.7		Kerry
San Luis Obispo	140659	83903	59.6	155495	81290	52.3	-7.3		Bush
____________________________________________________________________________________
Statewide      15303469	7594228	49.6  15837108  7334443	46.3	-3.3		Kerry

Hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots have not been counted yet, so I'm not sure whether or not these turnout numbers for 2006 reflect those remaining ballots. These remaining ballots are unlikely to influence the outcome of the propositions or statewide offices, since so many people stayed away from the polls.

If turnout had been encouraged in GOP counties, perhaps Secretary of State Bruce McPherson might have overcome his 3% vote deficit to win reelection, State Senator Tom McClintock might have overcome his 4% vote deficit to win Lieutenant Governor, or Prop 90 (restrictions on eminent domain abuse) might have overcome the 5% vote deficit to pass.

These turnout data show that California voters haven't changed their views on conservative values; instead, many voters more likely to vote conservatively simply stayed home.

135 posted on 11/13/2006 2:02:17 AM PST by heleny
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To: heleny

There were approx 180,000 more votes recorded today. The SoS is now reporting that there are a minimum of 598,268 more ballots to be processed of which 138,000 are from Riverside and San Bernardino alone. (that still excludes several counties that have not yet reported the number of unprocessed ballots). When complete, it looks like San Bernardino will come in with a turnout higher than 2002, and Riverside slightly lower (+/- 3%). In terms of pure voters, both will show a significantly higher amount of votes than 2002 (approx 120,000 votes, combined).

Orange County is now showing a minor decline from 2002 (2.9%), but they also had a huge drive recently that increased registration by 15% from 2002. 2006 actually turned out 55,000 more voters than 2002.


136 posted on 11/13/2006 8:42:32 PM PST by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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To: SmithL

btt


137 posted on 11/13/2006 8:55:42 PM PST by Ciexyz (Satisfied owner of a 2007 Toyota Corolla.)
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