Successful Guerrilla warfare doctrine involves 3 steps. We are winning in Iraq. The Terrorists and Militia's have been unable to evolve beyond state 1 of Guerrilla War The Counter Insurgency is slow, painful work. But the progress is all on our side. The "Insurgents" have demonstrated no ability to politically or militarily evolve.
Guerrilla war strategy consists of 3 phases.
1. Stage one: very small unit harassment actions.
2. Stage two: continuation of state one with an evolution to large units actions. Development of larger and large geographic areas fully under Guerrilla control.
3. Stage three: conventional warfare between large units.
The Terrorists are still stuck in stage one of Guerrilla Warfare. They can wreck stuff and kill people they cannot grow. They cannot take and hold ground or engage in anything beyond small scale hit and run attacks. Their failure to develop a shadow political structure to act as a polar opposite to the Iraqi Government is their fatal flaw. They simply lack the structure or local support network needed to move beyond state one.
Problem is thanks to the Junk Media and the Treason of the Democrat Party Leadership most Americans have no clue how well the mission is actually going. All they see is the thing that are seemingly going wrong. They are not actually going wrong, that is just how War works. Messy, violent, confusing and chaotic.
It is incredibly odd how Democrats, via their mouthpieces in the Junk Media, demand a level of perfection in Military operations that NO Journalist or Politician could ever live up to in their own professional spheres. Odd how Americans, who live with a very high level of incompetent in their government, their media, their day to day lives are so surprised and upset to discover war does work on a perfectly flawless time table. They seem to think war should work like their two hour Hollywood action movies told them it did. 2 Hours, bad guys dead, sympathy frag of supporting actor, hero gets girl and lives happily ever after.
These absurd expectations explain how it is Americans get "war weary" so very very rapidly. It is one of the biggest Achilles heels of US Foreign Policy. Our foes count on us getting bored with it all and just going home. I guess we could call it the America's Policy Attention Deficit Disorder.
Counter Terrorism (or Counter Insurgency) is as much about politics as it is about war. Conventional Military often find them incredibly frustrating because they are usually a case of 3 steps forward, 2 steps back, pause, repeat. Conventional Military people think in terms of go there, kill them, wreck their stuff, make them stop pissing us off.
Counter Insurgency does not work that way. Counter Insurgency works by making the local political structure strong enough to contain or beak the Insurgency. THAT is a slow painful process.
It is made a lot hard in Iraq by the hyper negative Media coverage and excessive nonsense spewed out by Domestic Politicians using the war because they think it will help them politically. Now after the 2006 elections it is Jump Ball again. It all depends on what the Democrats do. There is some sliver of hope. 1/3 of Democrats voted AGAINST their own leaderships cut and run dogma. MOST of the new Democrats ran as good old boy "Conservative Democrats". If they refuse to follow where the Dem leaders want to go on Iraq policy, we have the votes to stop them
By 2008-2009 the Iraqis political structure will be strong enough to stand on its own with minimal US support. Probably Iraq security forces stiffened with US SOF support teams and logistical support. Setting a firm time table changes all that. NOW the Iraqis on our side will feel sold out and may simply decide to sell us out by joining the other guys. Switching to the winning team at any time is an old tradition in Arab culture. Everything is a negotiation. Everything a deal. However, the Iraqis and Terrorists know they can hang on and simply run the time out on the clock to win Now it all depends on the remaining Republicans tied to the Conservative Democrat political smarts and GW Bush's spine. I don't know about you. That worries me.
Good analysis.
Also one other thing, I draw a distinction between capability and execution. We have certainly had, for long stretches, the capability to win a great war and to overcome existential threats conclusively culminating in total victory. But time and time again, we have held back. The so called realists have held sway, more often than not.