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Pres. Bush: I didn't want to inject a major policy decision like this in the middle of an election. I gave you that answer to move you onto your next question. I also had not finished talking with Gates

No, Bush knew that firing Rumsfeld before the election would anger the base, so he held off. However, I don't think the final decision was made until last night, when they saw the magnitude of the losses. They are just doing damage control, bring in some one new, gain some time, take away a mayor talking point away from the opposition.