Burns took Meagher handily in 2000 ... 625-267.
No reason to think he won't perform well there this year either.
Ok, so assume he'll pick up 350 votes in Meagher, and 550 in Fergus. That's 900 votes, which puts him at -1152. If he maintains 51-47 in yellowstone he'll pick up another 2000. Gallatin he could also pick up another 400.