The RNC's Absentee/Early Voting Tallies

The Hotline blog ^

[I Hired Craig Livingstone]

The RNC is sending this memo to surrogates this afternoon.

NATIONAL

Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote) Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.

ARIZONA

There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)

CONNECTICUT

In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.

FLORIDA

Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted. Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)

MARYLAND:

Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage. Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).

MISSOURI

Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote. 2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.

OHIO:

In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)

TENNESSEE

(not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data) In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote. We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.

VIRGINIA:

In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%. Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.

Posted at 05:17 PM

[Ellesu]

Rush talking to Levin on the radio now, Rush says "exit polls are wrong, don't panic", gonna be a long night."

[Right_in_Virginia]

BUMP and thanks for posting.

[snarkytart]

Rush talking to Levin on the radio now, Rush says "exit polls are wrong, don't panic", gonna be a long night."

_______________

Thank YOU!

I never smoked before, but damn...I feel like it tonight.
I'd drink but I'm at the office.

Hold on....I'm gonna get some chocolate out of the vending machine....hope that works.
lol

[Right_in_Virginia]

Great post!

[Right_in_Virginia]

exit polls are worthless

Yup. If we've learned anything, we've learned that the exit polls released first are from the most liberal districts.

[Starboard]

But then again, the exit polling is done in the afternoon.

Before lots of gainfully employed, tax paying working folks head off to vote. Idle Dems have lot of time during the day to vote.