RCP Projections

Time blog ^ | 11/7/06

[finnman69]

HOUSE: 222 D, 213 R (D +19)
SENATE: 51R, 49D (D+4)
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2006/11/rcp_projections.html

[finnman69]

RCP's election day prediction.

[newconhere]

Is there anyone out there that thinks we can hold onto the house besides us? I would prefer to hold both. Call me nuts.

[rightinthemiddle]

We need five upsets in the House. Itty, bitty upsets.

Man, turnout is everything.

[jsmaineconservative]

LS thinks we will. Check out his posts.

[sofaman]

what's their accuracy record like? I see to remember them not being so...

[MNJohnnie]

Same problem. All RCP analysis is and average based on all polling data including that which is shown to be seriously flawed.

Curious how relentless certain supposedly "Conservative: Freepers have been in trying to talk down the Republican Get Out the Vote efforts by hyping Junk Polling data as reality.

Curious what the motivation is to posting this sort of suppress the GOP turnout propaganda?

[jveritas]

Let me guess. Any democrat who is ahead by one point average in the media polls was declared a winner.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Their predictions are based on months and years of flawed media polls.

[pissant]

They need to pay more attention to Pissant's posts if they want to get accurate.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Any democrat who is ahead by one point average in the media polls was declared a winner.

The left-winged media calls that a landslide victory.

[AliVeritas]

Finn, did you see www.redstate.com

[MAD-AS-HELL]

ok, you are nuts but not sure what type of nut you are. :)

Seriously though, I can't wait to see the Democrats backpedal on everything they said they would do on the WAR, TAXES, ETC and watch their leftist base storm the doors of congress and piss on Pelosi's new hair doo while Barney Frank tries to shield her with a smile on his face.

[AliVeritas]

Hey bro.

Rough out here.
http://www.drudgereport.com/

[MNJohnnie]

Odd Yesterday you were saying the Repbs would lose at least 25 seats in the US House minimum. Now suddenly it is 19. RCP actually gives a range of 14-24

Why did you not post this analysis to give context? Seems the results posted at RCP are not nearly as definitive as you try to spin them. LOTS of wiggle room in this commentary by RCP.

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2006/11/rcp_projections.html

November 7, 2006

RCP Projections

Posted by JOHN MCINTYRE | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email RCP
HOUSE: 222 D, 213 R (D +19) On the Republican side, RCP's Final House ratings list thirteen seats in the Leans Democrat category, fourteen in the Toss Ups column and twenty seats rated Leans Republican. On the Democratic side, 2 seats are rated as Toss Ups with 4 Leaning Democrat.

Splitting Toss Ups 50/50, RCP projects Democrats picking up 19 seats in the House of Representatives with an overall range of 14 - 24 seats.

SENATE: 51R, 49D (D+4) Of the original fourteen competitive Senate contests RCP has been tracking, six races have Final RCP Averages in the double digits (PA, MN, WA, MI, OH, and CT) and are safe for each side. Of those six, Democrats will net pick ups in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a nominal hold with Joe Lieberman's win in Connecticut as an Independent. Three races (NJ, AZ, and TN) have Final RCP Averages over 6% and Lean toward each respective party and thus would be holds for each side.

The remaning five races listed in the Toss Up category (MO, MT, VA, MD, and RI) all have Final RCP Averages below 4% and are too close to call definitively for one side. Democrats hold leads in all five of these races, and based off the RCP Averages and the latest InTrade market quotes the most likely scenario would be for Democrats to win 3 of these 5 races. That would net two additional Democratic pick ups and leave them with a total gain of four seats.

[Rodm]

I say repubs pull off a major upset. The polls always shade the Dems 3 to 10 points. Repubs are inform by 6-9 hours of conservative talk shows a day and the old media is dying the death. Dems are going the suffer a serious blow because the believe their own crappy lies and propaganda.

[meg88]

Rich Lowry at National Review said -18 as of last night, RCP may be close.

[conservativecorner]

I remember their other predictions as well including their 2000 calls. Really bad! Be ready for the demoncrats to be howling at the moon tonight. Should be a blast!

[mwl1]

My view is that RCP is too pessimistic on the Senate races -- we lose a net of -2. R 53 D 47 = major victory.

[dogbyte12]

Here is the problem with the house. There are 11 to 12 seats that are goners. We only have 2 semi realistic pick up opportunities.

Realistically, we are down 11 seats. Then we have the toss ups. They would have to all break GOP to not lose the house. That just isn't realistic. Tom Delay, Mark Foley, Don Sherwood, Curt Weldon's seats all should have been safe, but are probably lost. Without the scandals, the GOP would have kept the house. It's not about the GOP, it's individual members in districts either retiring, or being mired in scandal.

Montana wouldn't have been close if Conrad Burns wasn't so tied to Abramoff. Sherwood was safe. Foley was safe. Delay was safe. Those are heavily Republican areas. If you don't even make the dims compete in safe areas because of scandal, they can spend money elsewhere.

[conservativecorner]