| A Guide to the Early Election Show |  |
by Election Watchdog — 11-07-2006 @ 11:18 AM
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What to look for tonight as the polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern/ 5 p.m. Central / 4 p.m. Mountain/ 3 p.m. Pacific
Indiana
Three US House races are the major focus here which should be the first big indicator on whether Republicans can keep the House.
2nd CD - In 2004, GOP Congressman Chris Chocola defeated Democrat Joe Donnelly by 54%-45%. This time in a rematch, polls show the race close but with Donnelly ahead. To win, Donnelly needs to pile up a good lead in normally Democratic South Bend (St Joseph County) and Michigan City (La Porte County). If he wins 60% in both these counties (which have a majority of the district’s votes) he should be the first Democrat pickup of the evening, but less than 55% probably means the Republicans can save their first threatened incumbent with votes from heavily Republican Elkhart County and other rural counties.
8th CD - A 1994 charter member of the Republican revolution, Congressman John Hostettler always wins but barely in this district by winning almost all the district’s rural counties usually by over 60%. His opponent this time is Vanderburgh County (Evansville) Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Usually close, Vanderburgh County should give Ellsworth at least 55% for him to be in contention. If he breaks 60%, it means another Democrat pickup in a district where most polls show Hostettler in trouble.
9th CD - Polls predict a very close race where freshman Republican Mike Sodrel unseated Democrat incumbent Baron Hill in 2004 by less than one percentage point.
Hill is back again for a rematch in a race where President Bush made a major campaign stop for Sodrel. To win, Hill needs to pile up a 20 point win again in the liberal university town of Bloomington ( Monroe County). Another key area is the Louisville suburban river counties of Clark and Floyd which last time split evenly. If Hill wins here by more than 55% the race is probably over. If it is close again, then it will be a long night as it was last time when this was the last US House race decided.
Kentucky
Like Indiana, there are no major statewide races in Kentucky so the action is mainly in three US House seats where Democrats think they have a chance to unseat Republican incumbents.
2nd CD - GOP Congressman Ron Lewis has had little trouble winning re-election since he won a 1994 special election in what was once a heavily Democrat but conservative district (Owensboro – Bowling Green). That election was a major sign that Republicans would win control over the House in 1994 after 40 years, and should Lewis be behind tonight it would mean the opposite - that Democrats would definitely win the House back.
For some reason, the experts think that Democrat Mike Weaver has a chance to win here. Weaver, an Army veteran who refers to himself as “the Colonel,” has tried to prove his conservative credentials by refusing to commit himself to voting for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and even went so far as to call Republican leaders (who knew about inappropriate e-mails sent to pages by Rep. Mark Foley) as “very liberal people” who “showed a very liberal tendency from some of the leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives.”
3rd CD - Polls show GOP Congresswoman Anne Northup in a tight race for re-election in her Louisville metro district which usually supports Democrats. Northup has usually had a tough fight here except in 2004 when she easily defeated Democrat county circuit court clerk Tony Miller by over 60%. This time she faces alternative newspaper publisher John Yarmuth who is well known but has many controversial liberal views in his column.
Results should come in fast from Jefferson County (Louisville).
4th CD - Last minute polls showed Republican Geoff Davis finally leading in his race against retired Democrat Congressman Ken Lucas who somehow held this conservative district (Louisville suburbs – Ohio River counties) from 1998-2004. Lucas represented this district by refusing to vote for Nancy Pelosi in past elections for House Speaker. Davis then won the seat in 2004 after losing to Lucas in 2002. Lucas (despite his past disloyalty to Pelosi) was recruited to run here by Democrats who will do anything to win this year.
To win, Lewis needs to win by 55% or more the Ohio River Cincinnati suburban counties (Boone, Campbell and Kenton) as well as win by 60%plus in the Louisville exurban county (Oldham). Here most of the smaller counties are ancestrally Democratic rural counties which Lucas has won in the past including the coal mining area of Elliott County.
If Democrats win four of the five above districts they are well on their way to winning the US House. If they win two or less it should be a long night.
Indiana
Three US House races are the major focus here which should be the first big indicator on whether Republicans can keep the House.
2nd CD - In 2004, GOP Congressman Chris Chocola defeated Democrat Joe Donnelly by 54%-45%. This time in a rematch, polls show the race close but with Donnelly ahead. To win, Donnelly needs to pile up a good lead in normally Democratic South Bend (St Joseph County) and Michigan City (La Porte County). If he wins 60% in both these counties (which have a majority of the district’s votes) he should be the first Democrat pickup of the evening, but less than 55% probably means the Republicans can save their first threatened incumbent with votes from heavily Republican Elkhart County and other rural counties.
8th CD - A 1994 charter member of the Republican revolution, Congressman John Hostettler always wins but barely in this district by winning almost all the district’s rural counties usually by over 60%. His opponent this time is Vanderburgh County (Evansville) Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Usually close, Vanderburgh County should give Ellsworth at least 55% for him to be in contention. If he breaks 60%, it means another Democrat pickup in a district where most polls show Hostettler in trouble.
9th CD - Polls predict a very close race where freshman Republican Mike Sodrel unseated Democrat incumbent Baron Hill in 2004 by less than one percentage point.
Hill is back again for a rematch in a race where President Bush made a major campaign stop for Sodrel. To win, Hill needs to pile up a 20 point win again in the liberal university town of Bloomington ( Monroe County). Another key area is the Louisville suburban river counties of Clark and Floyd which last time split evenly. If Hill wins here by more than 55% the race is probably over. If it is close again, then it will be a long night as it was last time when this was the last US House race decided.
Kentucky
Like Indiana, there are no major statewide races in Kentucky so the action is mainly in three US House seats where Democrats think they have a chance to unseat Republican incumbents.
2nd CD - GOP Congressman Ron Lewis has had little trouble winning re-election since he won a 1994 special election in what was once a heavily Democrat but conservative district (Owensboro – Bowling Green). That election was a major sign that Republicans would win control over the House in 1994 after 40 years, and should Lewis be behind tonight it would mean the opposite - that Democrats would definitely win the House back.
For some reason, the experts think that Democrat Mike Weaver has a chance to win here. Weaver, an Army veteran who refers to himself as “the Colonel,” has tried to prove his conservative credentials by refusing to commit himself to voting for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and even went so far as to call Republican leaders (who knew about inappropriate e-mails sent to pages by Rep. Mark Foley) as “very liberal people” who “showed a very liberal tendency from some of the leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives.”
3rd CD - Polls show GOP Congresswoman Anne Northup in a tight race for re-election in her Louisville metro district which usually supports Democrats. Northup has usually had a tough fight here except in 2004 when she easily defeated Democrat county circuit court clerk Tony Miller by over 60%. This time she faces alternative newspaper publisher John Yarmuth who is well known but has many controversial liberal views in his column.
Results should come in fast from Jefferson County (Louisville).
4th CD - Last minute polls showed Republican Geoff Davis finally leading in his race against retired Democrat Congressman Ken Lucas who somehow held this conservative district (Louisville suburbs – Ohio River counties) from 1998-2004. Lucas represented this district by refusing to vote for Nancy Pelosi in past elections for House Speaker. Davis then won the seat in 2004 after losing to Lucas in 2002. Lucas (despite his past disloyalty to Pelosi) was recruited to run here by Democrats who will do anything to win this year.
To win, Lewis needs to win by 55% or more the Ohio River Cincinnati suburban counties (Boone, Campbell and Kenton) as well as win by 60%plus in the Louisville exurban county (Oldham). Here most of the smaller counties are ancestrally Democratic rural counties which Lucas has won in the past including the coal mining area of Elliott County.
If Democrats win four of the five above districts they are well on their way to winning the US House. If they win two or less it should be a long night.