Posted on 11/06/2006 5:47:24 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Democrats are set to gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and five governorships in tomorrow's elections. It is a sign of Republicans' sorry state that, at this point, this is actually a very favorable outlook for them.
In the last day of the midterm election campaign, we offer a final run-down of how candidates are doing in each contested district or state. We aim to give a complete forecast on tomorrow's competitive election contests in this final-hour newsletter, which will be followed up by a post-election analysis on Wednesday.
Expectations Game: At this point, there will be no new polls, no major news events capable of significantly disrupting the election cycle.
We know one thing for sure: Republicans are going to lose ground in both houses of Congress. The White House presents, as its rosiest scenario, a loss of 12 House seats. This is not entirely impossible, but it is too optimistic for the realistic observer.
If Democrats fail, it will set off an even worse intra-party bloodbath than came after the 2000 and 2004 elections.
If Democrats succeed, it will be for two reasons:
The first is an arrogant and politically tin-eared Republican establishment in Washington. In the handling of key issues such as the occupation of Iraq, the response to Hurricane Katrina, and a meaningful follow-through on Social Security reform, the White House displayed incompetence.
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
You are really jonesing for a FR cyber ass beating aren't you? All talk.
If I am wrong I will admit it
BUT
you will be the first one I ping with a told you so. Actually, you would be the only one since no one else is being obnoxious like you.
I'll go with Barone over anyone else at this point. He is a walking encyclopedia of past election history. I heard someone say the other day he has so many flow charts they marvel at how he keeps it all straight, but he does.
Mike Barone knows practically every precinct in the country. He is quite remarkable. That news about 18 seats is not good, but I guess it could be worse. If the Dems do take control their margin will be so narrow they might not be able to accomplish much. Plus they will have to watch their backs for the entire term because they know their grip on power will be tenuous. With luck they can be thrown out in 2 years, after they govern as far left defeatists.
I stay with President Bush and Karl Rove predictions that we are going to keep the House and the Senate. These two men have much more accurate data and much larger set of information about what is going on than any other media pollster or pundit. Most importantly they have the record of three national elections victories in a raw including two Presidential election, and three Congressional elections. These elections that the biased media polls, the pundits including many knee jerk ones on our side, predicted that we were going to lose, they were very wrong.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/archives/061106/the_weekends_nu.htm#more
pretty good sumamry by Barone today. Does not include final number predictions however.
I still think we will take the house by a thread... Barone is remarkable and it looks to me like he is getting a little excited about the turn toward the GOP... unlike his compadres the Beltway Boys and Bill Kristol who insist we will lose the senate and the house.
Barone has an amazing mind.
Barone implied on Fox News that Novak's number might be a bit low - which it is.
Magnificent! Even more reason to meet at the polls early, President Bush and Karl Rove, I like them guys.
Actually, some pollsters have been accurate the last few elections, and I have been following their polls.
Battleground Tarrance, Pew, Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon
Barone said which number of Novak's was low? Novak says the Dems pick up 19. Did Barone say they might gain more? I sure hope not. Another poster here said Barone predicted no more than 18.
On a related topic, I just saw the ad here with old Paul Newman shilling for his left wing buddy Ned Lamont. He complained about how 18 years in DC was too much for Joe Lieberman. Time for a change, they say. Interesting since their other liberal hero, Chris Dodd, has been in the Senate 26 years! I haven't heard one Demo say he should retire.
Absolutely true with only a couple of exceptions. For example, Delay alone is responsible if his seat is lost.
I hope your right about the President & Rove have much better data, but they have to keep a happy face in the closing hours. It certainly won't change my vote or discourage me from voting but things do look a little grim overall, don't you think?
FYI
battleground was dead on in 2004
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1274530/posts
WHICH POLLSTER WAS THE MOST ACCURATE? (ranks both national and state pollsters)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/809583/posts
Analysis of 2002 Election Polls Finds Most Were Accurate
Barone implied that 18 was a bit low, which it probably is. But I would be surprised, as I suspect Barone would, if the Dems get more than 25 seats.
Barone said he was at 18 two weeks ago, suggesting that his current number was somewhat different. The odds are not that good it will be that low, but absent some suprises, the outcome is really going to be in the 20-25 range. My number is 21. I have a couple of Pubbies going down, that must don't, and about about 3 or 4 Pubbies surviving, that may well go down, and the CW says they will. The CW on most races is fairly across the board.
Bottom line if you average the current house races individually, using a RCP 5 most recent poll average, currently you have 187 R seats leaning R or strong, 219 D seats leaning D or strong, leaving 29 toss up seats.
If you split the tossups, it would be a normal 6th year historical 29 seat loss. Final D234-R201.
This is purely playing the average of the 5 most recent polls in each respective district. Momentum could change the final result, but keeping the House will be difficult. GOTV could make a huge difference as many races are razor tight.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.