"My source for the 48% was Kos, so I'll take your word for it. :-)
Now *that's* what I call a no-brainer. : )
I confirmed the numbers on Michael Barone's Almanac of American Politics, which CD numbers were compiled by Polidata, and President Bush indeed got 45% in the MD-03 in 2004 (he got 41% in 2000). The district is just a smidgeon more Republican than the state as a whole, and in a 2004 election in which the GOP has an excellent chance of winning the gubernatorial and Senate elections it might be enough to pull off the upset in the House race.