If he doesn't get 50% then there's a runoff election in which case the 60% will band together and defeat Ortega once again. In fact, if history is any sign, it will probably be greater because some people who sat out this time will realize Ortega's still a possibility and will do what's needed. It should be said though that Ortega has played this campaign like the DemoncRATs have here in the US, putting up phony "conservative" candidates.