Eight Things Political Junkies Should Consider

If you're a politics nut who's betting on the outcome of next week's midterm elections—and whose eyes are bleeding from all the bouncy-bouncy polls—here are a few other factors to consider:

— In his morning note today, veteran Washington observer Greg Valliere of Stanford Washington Research writes that he sees a "slight momentum shift toward Republicans," helped by John Kerry's botched joke. "This has been one of the toughest elections in years to handicap, thanks to Iraq, scandals, uncertainty over turnout, etc. Our final call: the Democrats pick up 19 House seats (15 are needed to gain control) and four Senate seats (five would create a tie)."

— Top Google News headline: "4.4 percent unemployment registers 5-year low," not something like "October job growth disappoints Wall Street."

— Today's job report showed that average hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent in October and are up 3.9 percent in the pst year—nicely above the 25-year average of 3.5 percent. (Number crunching courtesy of First Trust Advisors.) Real disposable personal income — DPI adjusted to remove price changes—increased a whopping 0.8 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in August.

— The S&P 500 is up 11.4 percent since mid-June but down 1.9 percent since October 26.

— The average U.S. gasoline price is $2.22 a gallon, down from $2.62 on September 11.

— The betting markets are predicting the Dems will take the House but not the Senate. Over at TradeSports, the bottom has fallen out of the HOUSE.GOP.2006 contract. It now gives the GOP just a 25 percent chance of retaining control. The SENATE.GOP.2006 contract, by contrast, gives Republicans a 69 percent chance of keeping the Senate. At the Washington Stock Exchange, traders give the GOP a 65 percent chance of retaining the Senate and a 33 percent chance of keeping the House.

— The Brandt-Brunell political forecasting model is predicting the GOP will win 219 seats—but with a 6.5-seat margin of error.

— On a bad day for stocks, shares of Sallie Mae stock were up nearly 1 percent, having risen 4.5 percent since October 20. Many analysts think the company could be hurt by a Democratic effort to cut student loan rates, and its stock has tanked since late May. The turnaround could mean investors now think such fears are overblown.

What matters far more than concrete issues are basic party resources and skills. The republicans are way ahead of the democrats in many ways in this indicator.

1) Howard Dean had to spend money rebuilding moribund State party organizations. These were critical millions needed by candidates, who then owe the party no loyalty.

2) Hillary openly snubbed the party, telling contributors to give her the money instead; that she could then dole out to buy loyalty.

3) Democrat presidential hopefuls will have to begin campaigning almost immediately after the elections. This means that the party has already split into hateful camps set on undermining each other.

4) Overall, the democrats spent up all their money at the start, trying to build momentum; in the final two weeks, however, it has been all republican. Dean has taken the party into debt for money to fight close-call senate races.

5) On election day, the well-oiled and practiced republican get out the vote machine will operate far more effectively than will the democrats underfunded and green organizations.

6) Republicans have also learned the great secret of absentee ballots on a huge scale. This avoids all sorts of problems like inclement weather and other distractors. They are also making an extra effort to get military personnel to vote.

Thanks for posting this. If MSM or our PCP (politically correct press) were at all fair. This election cycle would not even be close. Republicans wouldn't have to worry about any kind of a net loss, maybe they would lose a seat or two, but that would be more than made up by seats won. As it is though most races are too close to call and I believe many close races will go GOP so many the Demonrats will say it is a national conspiracy. Fine by me I have been listening to this crap since Novemeber 2002 and it was enough to turn me off my former party.

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