Shell stated that they will not make a decision for a commercial operation until 2010. While somebody may have
used a 3.5-1 ERORI, that seems inconsistent with the quoted statement below (10/24/06). Production of major quantities at a practical rate will require energy and water. The rate at which the raw product seeps out of the soil will also
be an important factor.
"John Hofmeister, the head of Royal Dutch Shell's U.S. unit, and other officials have been encouraged for the past year since they concluded that the oil-shale technology was viable, said Jill Davis, a project spokeswoman.
"We know the technology works," Davis said, after Hofmeister's remarks to Bloomberg News. "The thing is we have to determine whether it works on a commercial scale."
The decision to invest in oil-shale production probably will be made "no earlier" than 2010, she added."
Shell has been working this process as a pilot project at their Mahogany facility in Colorado for 2 decades. This is not a theoritical or calculated value but a measured one. They have been waiting for more than a year for BLM to give approval to develop a larger facility.