Hmmm...CNN has the 2002 vote total at 168333...they claim it's 100% of returns.
Allegheny Murtha 829-312 (73$)
Armstrong Murtha 7784-3794 (67%)
Cambria Murtha 33651-7548 (82%)
Fayette Murtha 17345-5897 (75%)
Greene Murtha 6310-2806 (69%)
Indiana Murtha 3624-1544 (70%)
Somerset Murtha 7778-2656 (75%)
Washington Murtha 19313-8327 (70%)
Westmoreland Murtha 27116-11699 (70%)
But back to your question....would heavy turnout favor Irey or Murtha? If these data are genuine, I would have to say Irey....Murtha's 2002 total is only slightly lower than Kerry's, while Choby's 2002 total is substantially below Bush's.
If the basic premise holds true (IOW, unusually high turnout), we could be pleasantly surprised. We share that view.
state.pa.us has results very close to CNN....
The returns for Governor from those counties for 2002 don't look too unusual....so yes I am going to guess that a lot of Republicans skipped the CD-12 race that year.