I had no idea the percentage could be that high, the 18% is the figure that's been kicked around for several months. From the reaction to Murtha's military bashing for the last year or so she's bound to get a solid percentage of Veteran's family votes.
I also believe she'll win it, I've felt that way from when she first decided and I found out her particulars. Of course I know my dislike of Murtha slanted my view early on but as time has passed I felt her numbers grew and his fell.
I also think the Repub base has started to come alive, I know that the Kerry fiasco has helped. As far as the percentage she wins it by I'm pulling for your numbers, I'll happily disagree with the Irey campaign on that one. :-)
Most of the polls are done on weekends and/or include weekends...
Guess who isn't home much on weekends? Christians, families, Moms and Dads... mostly Republicans.
Plus, most of us have caller ID or cell phones...and we don't tend to answer phone numbers we don't recognize.
Then there's the Republican/conservatives who answer the polls as if they were left-wing liberals... ;O)
...and that doesn't include outright bias and fraud on the part of the polling companies...or their use of ten, twenty or even thirty year old models and philosophies for their polls.
...just something to consider when yer read about polls about the Irey race...or any other race, for that matter.