The Shifting 2008 Landscape

Real Clear Politics ^ | October 24, 2006 | John McIntyre

[freespirited]

Election 2006 will be over in two weeks with the election results likely to provide the catalyst for ... the next 12 months in positioning for who will be the next President of the United States.

...the Republican side has settled around the "Big 3" of McCain, Giuliani and Romney. ...McCain has had the best several weeks of any candidate, in either party. The North Korean nuke provided McCain with an opportunity to burnish his national security pedigree... McCain's less partisan style may win him points with the beltway media and Independents but it is a big-time negative with the conservative base he is going to need to win the GOP nomination. His recent attacks on the Clintons over North Korea warmed conservative attitudes toward McCain measurably.

But even better for McCain than Kim Jong-il's nuke, the Foley scandal destroyed Republican momentum at a critical time and completely threw the GOP back on its heels heading into the midterm homestretch. With the possibility of a Democratic takeover of Congress having risen considerably McCain is well positioned to pick up the pieces from a dispirited and angry Republican party if they indeed lose two weeks from today.

...McCain's biggest appeal to Republicans...will be his claim (credibly) that he can win in 2008. And a Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid could be all John McCain needs to convince enough nervous conservatives to get behind him to ensure blowing the Democrats out of the water in 2008....

This may all be a little Machiavellian for some, but the chess pieces are moving on the 2008 presidential board. With the odds of McCain winning the GOP nomination greatly improved by a Republican rout in '06, the possibility that Hillary Clinton may indeed take a pass on 2008 has to be more seriously considered.

[David Noles]

The author of this bull , John McIntyre , is clearly a huge John McCain fan and can't see pass his own bias.

McCain no sure bet on the nomination and it is way to early to be saying anything is settled. Even if McCain is the nominee , he's not a sure bet to win a general election.

McCain has the same problem he had in 2000. He is the darling on the leftist media and gets lots of great press but rank and file republicans don't support him. He doesn't have the support with the base to win the nomination.

If the gop takes a beaten in the mid terms in Nov , I say the party goes right and not left of middle which is where McCain fits. Bush is going to get the blame and the party will be looking for the anti Bush canadate in 08 , someone who doesn't look like another Nixon liberal neocons republican like Bush and co.


The democrats who like vote for him in open primaries inflates his numbers and are a big part of his supporter. But they won't vote for him in the general election. This holds truer if a Clinton is the nominee on the other side.
Democrats hero worship the Clinton's.

[RichardW]

Warner may have been promised the VP slot by the Clintons. That's a pet theory of mine. Either that or he has some significant skeletons clanking around in his closet.

But as I say, what will become interesting is two weeks after the election when the bloodbath will begin from Gore and Edwards to knock off Hillary. They have no choice, really. It is either now or never.