wow, you are really digging. I think you've got me to at least a point of saying that whatever correlation there is, is weak. SU is worse than NU or VU... and you have to throwin incumbent vs non-incumbent elections to see that factor. Still, if you look at historical context, midterm trends can portend the next election ... so ...
can you at least admit that the data doesnt suggest any kind of 'bounce-back' effect like some 'cut-n-run' conservatives suggest? That is, if we let the Dems win in 2006, we'll do better in 2008. Can you see at least that such a claim is nonsense?
Not sure abot that. I've only looked at midterm correlation with next Presidential election. For the effect you're discussing, I think you'd have to look at correlations from each Congressional election to the next. I may do that although it is a lot of work.
Can you see at least that such a claim (D '06 leading to R '08) is nonsense?
No, I don't think it's nonsense in the sense that it's very arguable. Maybe I'm completely off base but I really do think they'd go crazy, Bush Derangement Syndrome and all that. The backlash against D nuttiness in 92/93 was real.
Well, let's hope it doesn't come to it.