Posted on 10/15/2006 10:34:29 AM PDT by colorcountry
Son just called. Does anyone know anything?
Showing a lot of stuff that fell over inside houses - I don't live in a quake area but if I did it's not really rocket science to attach TVs, cabinets, and stuff to walls and would have saved a lot of trouble - I don't think people understood theseismic nature of the area.
Absolutely the most logical and likely position to prevail.
basically the entirety of the Tsunami Research community has destroyed the wildly overestimated wave heights that would result from the collapse on the East Coast of the US
I agree with that. Then I remember that these are the same type of experts who have consistently told everyone for the last ten years that human caused global warming was a proven fact or that it was safe to launch the Challenger and there was no problem with the foam for Columbia. And they're also the same experts who told us all that there was an ice age descending on us for the previous 20 years. Can you tell I don't trust "experts?"
I will reserve judgment pending evidence but I flat out refuse the declarative statements of so called experts. More than that, I treat declarative statements from folks who have no bona fides on these threads as actively arguing against the case they are trying to make (that does not include you, before you think that I think that),
Until we have a long run out volcanic island collapse and can measure the effects we just don't know. Before Mt. St. Helens no one believed that a horizontal eruption of that type was possible and the authorities based their "safe zone" on those expert assurances. A whole bunch of people, including some world recognized experts, died as a result. Increasingly we are finding the same kind of bogus "expert conclusions" for things like Katrina (it was below a 3 when it hit New Orleans but everyone insisted that a 3 was no problem for the levees) or the collapse of the World Trade Center towers on 9/11 (Bush did it, the experts say so).
Call me a skeptic in regards to "expert opinion." Before Shoemaker expert opinion was that there were no impact craters on Earth or the Moon. Hell, you have to have heard the one about engineers proving that the bumble bee simply can't fly?
More important for me is not falling into Borman's "failure of imagination," which he showed us is what was ultimately to blame for the Apollo 1 fire and which I think is clearly behind both the losses of Challenger and Columbia. I think that's also what cost the folks in New Orleans so deeply and those killed in the safe zone around Mount St. Helens. It's also what killed the folks on the lower levels of the double decker roads around the SF bay in 1989. Everyone just assumed that it couldn't happen. Well they were wrong and a whole bunch of people died.
Having said all of that, I assume you are familiar with the reputable studies that "debunk" the Cumbra Vieja collapse causing a mega tsunami of 1,000 feet or more? Have you followed through and thought out their almost universal predictions that it would result in a maximum tsunami of "only" 3 to 8 meters when it reached the US East Coast? That's 9 to 24 feet. The largest Tsunami in recorded history is 9 feet and resulted in the total destruction of all coastal towns in the portion of Japan that was hit and massive destruction for several miles inland. Do you want to predict the effects of a 24 foot surge in, say, Manhattan? Kiss the Bronx goodbye, along with most of Queens, Westchester and all of Long Island. New Jersey won't fair well and the destruction might even reach to Philadelphia. And most of Florida would simply no longer exist, Mickey and friends included. That's a max 24 foot surge. That's the top end of the conservative estimate of those experts that debunked the Cumbra Vieja hysteria. What if they're wrong, like the folks who said it was safe to launch the Challenger?
I always go back to what the engineer from Morton Thiokol said after being overruled on launching under the cold weather conditions. "This is away from goodness."
My main problem, however, is that hysterical arguments of extremes, like 3,000 foot waves, have the affect of hiding the truly catastrophic affects of what is reasonably inferred from the evidence.
Next to human life, I'm most worried about the Keck telescope. This can't be good for a giant precision instrument like that.
That is good stuff. Thank you very much.
My main problem is an obsession and hype about stuff with almost no chance of happening (Cumbre Vieja, Yellowstone) to the exclusion of stuff that gets almost no publicity at all with a lot more chance of happening (very large earthquakes directly under places like Salt Lake City, Reno, and Albuquerque.)
And the whole Cumbre Vieja thing was started by ONE "expert" who really seems to me to have been intoxicated by all the media attention.
The Big Island has a lot of big earthquakes. There was a 7.2 in 1975 that caused a local tsunami that actually killed people, and there was a 6.6 in 1983.
So things are okay in da aina? You think we're getting some sensationalism over on the mainland? I was looking at those AP pictures of people standing in line at a "roadside chicken stand." I think this picture was used to convey a dire "bread line" sort of image. But it's a huli huli stand. They always have lines.
Past Earthquakes in Hawaii Oct 15 8:23 PM US/Eastern By The Associated Press A brief history of moderate or strong earthquakes that have struck in Hawaii, from the U.S. Geological Survey: _ 6.6 preliminary, Kailua Kona, Oct. 15, 2006. Caused power outages, landslides and some property damage, according to early reports. _ 5.2, Naalehu, July 17, 2005 _ 5.3, Paauilo, July 15, 2005 _ 6.1, off coast near Volcano, Jun. 25, 1989. _ 6.7, Kaoiki, Nov. 16, 1983 _ 7.2, Kalapana, Nov. 29, 1975. Tsunami killed two people in Halape. _ 6.9, Kona, Aug. 21, 1951 _ 6.8, Maui, Jan. 22, 1938 _ 6.5, Holualoa, Oct. 6, 1929 _ 6.8, Lanai, Feb. 19, 1871 _ 7.9, Ka'u district, April 2, 1868. Hawaii's largest earthquake, caused 77 deaths and knocked down homes made of stone, wood or straw. Landslides buried homes, and a tsunami drowned dozens of the victims. _ 7.0, Ka'u district, March 28, 1868. A foreshock of the April 2 earthquake. _ 7.0, south flank of Kilauea, June 2, 1823
Thanks. Man, I've always thought of Hawaii as a perfectly safe place to live, as far as natural disaters go (except for the occasional tsumani). Jeez, I learn something every day -- even when I'm not trying! :-)
Check out the USGS earthquake website. Now Alaska is having small earthquakes 23:58 hours 2.9 and at 00:22 3.2 . Not huge ones but geeshhh....
Thanks for the ping, SAFTD.
Any reports of damage from north point? My mom lives just down the road from the vanilla orchid plantation up there.
Any word would be appreciated. Just found out about this...
(that'll teach me to go hiking in the Big Horns...)
They have those every day.
They're saying that this 6.6 magnitude quake is the largest quake in Hawaii since 1989. There are injuries reported but so far, no reports of casualties. The most recent aftershock occurred at 11:45 a.m. local time, it was 2.7, a micro quake. About an hour earlier, there was a light aftershock, at 4.4 magnitude.
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I wish I could help, but I don't know the geographic makeup very well over there. There are a few Hawaiian freepers onboard that are reporting. (Your hiking trip sounds great!)
Understood. Actually it wasn't the question itself- it was his tone when posing it, you know..the HIGH DRAMA of what-if...
You are kidding, right?
Oh sure, we have to have one voice of reason on every thread :) hahaha. (I can safely say I am never the one)
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