Yeah, the Poles will make it. So will the Dutch and the Brits. But I disagree with you about the Germans. France and Spain are lost causes. Hell, Spain was never in the game in the first place - always been a cesspool ripe for takeover by a violent horde.
There was a reason I didn't mention Spain, however; the Germans are getting pissed! Take a look at the 20th century to see what they are capable of, and not just once. They are more likely to lead the action than collapse. Austria will fall under their sphere. Poland is solid. Figured the Dutch would also fall under the German sphere, again. Only question is will Germany bother to save France?