Campaignomics

USNews &World Report ^ | October 2, 2006 | James Pethokoukis

[DredTennis]

Campaignomics Gas is cheaper. So are houses. What's up with the economy-and how do voters see it?

Could it really be as simple as falling gas prices? President Bush is enjoying a bump up in the polls: His approval ratings-as measured by the USA Today/Gallup Poll-have drifted up from the mid-30s in early June to 44 percent now, their highest levels in more than a year. And this rebound comes despite Americans' widespread unhappiness over the war in Iraq, anxiety about rising income inequality, and job insecurity bred of globalization.

Gas prices are down more than 66 cents a gallon in the past seven weeks, easing inflation worries and boosting the stock market, with the Dow Jones industrial average close to a record high. Last week, the Conference Board reported that consumers' outlook for the next six months had improved markedly since August.

An improving economy-or voters' perception of an improving economy-might just keep the GOP in control of the House of Representatives, the branch that many analysts see as most likely to change hands. At least that's the conclusion of University of Texas-Dallas political science professors Patrick Brandt and Thomas Brunell. The duo just finished testing a forecasting model that attempts to predict the outcome of the battle for the House. Their three main factors are the presidential approval rating, inflation rate (think of it as a proxy for gas prices), and unemployment rate. Using a model-generated prediction of a 43 percent presidential approval rating on Election Day, the Brandt-Brunell formula predicts the GOP will retain 220 seats, a loss of 12 seats but still enough to keep control. And every 2 additional Bush approval points would mean a loss of one seat fewer.

[petercooper]

[soccermom]

UNREAL! Now why would Karl Rove waste his time and bullets on defenseless little Amish girls when he could summon up a canyon-producing earthquake on the California/Mexico border. He could both distract us from Woodward's book and solve the illegal immigration problem with one swift Act of Satan!

[Republican Red]

American people didn't want hear about him, but rather those children in PA and Las Vegas

On purpose last night I watched both CNN and Fox to compare their coverage of the days big events. CNN devoted three hours to Foley and one hour to Bob Woodward via Larry King. The PA murders were covered soley on the news updates at the top of the hour.

Fox covered the PA murders a majority of the time but also covered Bob Woodward a bit and Foley a bit.

I could not believe that CNN thinks Foley and politics is more important a news story than the murders in PA.

[ClaireSolt]

Welfare for gays???

[Star Traveler]

You said -- "Welfare for gays???

I'm not sure what you mean... but taking off from that comment -- I would rather have gays on welfare (gladly paying the bill) than have them voting on legislation concerning this country.

Regards,
Star Traveler