What's the partisan breakdown on this district? Can it be held if a replacement is allowed?
I must say, this is beginning to feel like shades of '94 with all these scandals coming down just prior to the election.
I think you need to go back to DU and share your delusions with the Dummies.
"4)(a) In the event that death, resignation, withdrawal, removal, or any other cause or event should cause a party to have a vacancy in nomination which leaves no candidate for an office from such party, the Department of State shall notify the chair of the appropriate state, district, or county political party executive committee of such party; and, within 5 days, the chair shall call a meeting of his or her executive committee to consider designation of a nominee to fill the vacancy. The name of any person so designated shall be submitted to the Department of State within 7 days after notice to the chair in order that the person designated may have his or her name on the ballot of the ensuing general election. If the name of the new nominee is submitted after the certification of results of the preceding primary election, however, the ballots shall not be changed and the former party nominee's name will appear on the ballot. Any ballots cast for the former party nominee will be counted for the person designated by the political party to replace the former party nominee. If there is no opposition to the party nominee, the person designated by the political party to replace the former party nominee will be elected to office at the general election. For purposes of this paragraph, the term "district political party executive committee" means the members of the state executive committee of a political party from those counties comprising the area involving a district office."
The Democrat Mahoney is very well-funded and this would've been a highly competitive race even versus a scandal-less Foley if Foley hadn't been super well-funded. I think it's a very tough hold, but a lot depends on whether Foley's name gets replaced and who it is that replaces him. I do not think a "generic Republican" can hold this seat this year in much the same way that Thelma Drake held VA-02 in 2004.