Could there be at least 20% of validity?
Put it this way, I'd be highly suprised if Turkey has not had war plans for the Kurdish area of Iraq for the last 4 decades.
I'd say so. In July during the Israeli-Hizbolla dust up Turkey was accusing the US of employing a double standard in the region because we supported Israel's right to attach the hizzies but we were preventing Turkey from attacking Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq.
Glenn Beck has been saying that his sources ( I know, I know..he's a radio entertainer but he is paying attention to the M.E.)claim that Turkey is being radicalized almost daily. Turkish newspapers are virulently anti-American. Their biggest blockbuster movie is about war with the U.S. and their current best seller in fiction is a book about murdering the Pope while he's on a visit to Turkey. Supposedly the Turkish government is getting colder to us everyday...from their refusal to allow us to stage troops and materiel in Turkey near the Iraq border to the present day. And no matter what they think of US...they really hate the Kurds and we have to be very careful dealing with the Turks. I'd say that region is more of a potential powder keg than the Israeli-Lebonese border.