Also, while I doubt the NIE is that negative, I don't give a damn what it says. I don't want to abandon Iraq, I want us to push forward against Iran and maybe Syria. I don't want my country run by memos.
Bump!.... what you said kiddo!
With all due respect, these NIEs have zero credibilty.
They're written by the same guys that said Iraq had WMDs, that Pakistan is 5-10 years away from a nuclear bomb, that were caught flatfooted on Iranian and North Lorean Ballistic Missile testing, that have been unable to find Osama Bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri for 10+ years, that had no clue about the attack on 9/11, the 1st WTC, the African Embassies, the Cole, the Khobar Towers, etc...
The key word here is ESTIMATE
Basically, it's all just a play it safe guesswork