Only Burns is in trouble, but he'll pull it out, + Kean and possibly Kennedy.
Interesting. I hope you're right.
Haven't seen any new Chaffe numbers since Tuesday. It will be close............
Keans looks pretty good and that's a pick up.
However, think we need to consider a loss of three or four (Burns, Chaffe Dewine and Rick still behind, but maybe a pick up of NJ.
My prediction........Loss of 2 or 3 and pick up of 1
And hold the House by five or six vote margin. Loss of 10.
http://www.owise.com/servlet/ow?t=report&script=owise&r_COMMAND=ELECT2006
Owise has only been active a little over a year but it has already made surprisingly accurate estimates. When all the talking heads were saying Rove was likely to be indicted in Plamegate, Owise only gave that a 3% probability. Owise blends together estimates of its members, weighting them based on how accurate each member was in the past. Because a member gets zero weight untl they have a long track record, it is fairly resistant to being spammed like online polls.
Right now Owise is close to your estimates, saying GOP loses about 12 house seats and 3 to 4 senate seats, but is likely to retain narrow control of both. It does give the dems a 34% chance to take the house right now, but only a 9% chance of senate change.
Of course as evidence comes in, the members change their estimates to reflect new information.