[Omedalus]

How do we know the planet is not going to go through a cooling phase?

We don't know for certain. Right now, based on evidence we've accumulated, we believe that we're in a rare temperate plateau between normally hot and cold extremes, and that we're accelerating in a slide towards the hot state.

This is all based on large amounts of inference. It could be completely wrong, but right now it matches the accumulated evidence to the best of our ability to compare and analyze.

Of course, just because you know your world model may be faulty, doesn't mean you should live your life catering to the possible faultiness. In other words, just because you can hedge your bets on your belief doesn't mean you should hedge your actions. I recognize that there's an outside chance that I may be hallucinating the chair in front of my computer desk right now, but I'm still going to sit on it without even pausing. :)

[DaveTesla]

"We don't know for certain. Right now, based on
evidence we've accumulated, we believe that we're in a
rare temperate plateau between normally hot and cold
extremes, and that we're accelerating in a slide towards
the hot state."

Correct, the point is we don't know what is going to happen.
Imagine if we wrecked our economies and placed billions
in misery only to find out this:

Russian scientist predicts global cooling
MOSCOW, Aug. 25 (UPI) -- A Russian scientist predicts a
period of global cooling in coming decades, followed by a
warmer interval.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov expects a repeat of the period
known as the Little Ice Age. During the 16th century, the
Baltic Sea froze so hard that hotels were built on the ice
for people crossing the sea in coaches.

The Little Ice Age is believed to have contributed to the
end of the Norse colony in Greenland, which was founded
during an interval of much warmer weather.

Abdusamatov and his colleagues at the Russian Academy of
Sciences astronomical observatory said the prediction is
based on measurement of solar emissions, Novosti reported.
They expect the cooling to begin within a few years and to
reach its peak between 2055 and 2060.

"The Kyoto initiatives to save the planet from the
greenhouse effect should be put off until better times,"
he said. "The global temperature maximum has been reached
on Earth, and Earth's global temperature will decline to a
climatic minimum even without the Kyoto protocol."

[DaveTesla]

F.Y.I.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov is chief of the Space Exploration Department of the Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the supervisor of the Astrometria project of the Russian part of the International Space Station, Doctor of Physical Sciences.

[DaveTesla]

Have a look at this:

Long Range Solar Forecast

05.10.2006

Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries. May 10, 2006: The Sun's Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "It's off the bottom of the charts," he says. "This has important repercussions for future solar activity." The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years to perform one complete circuit. Researchers believe the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle, and that's why the slowdown is important. Right: The sun's "Great Conveyor Belt" in profile. "Normally, the conveyor belt moves about 1 meter per second—walking pace," says Hathaway. "That's how it has been since the late 19th century." In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south. "We've never seen speeds so low." According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity ~20 years in the future. A slow belt means lower solar activity; a fast belt means stronger activity. The reasons for this are explained in the Science@NASA story Solar Storm Warning. "The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries," says Hathaway. This is interesting news for astronauts. Solar Cycle 25 is when the Vision for Space Exploration should be in full flower, with men and women back on the Moon preparing to go to Mars. A weak solar cycle means they won't have to worry so much about solar flares and radiation storms. Above: In red, David Hathaway's predictions for the next two solar cycles and, in pink, Mausumi Dikpati's prediction for cycle 24. On the other hand, they will have to worry more about cosmic rays. Cosmic rays are high-energy particles from deep space; they penetrate metal, plastic, flesh and bone. Astronauts exposed to cosmic rays develop an increased risk of cancer, cataracts and other maladies. Ironically, solar explosions, which produce their own deadly radiation, sweep away the even deadlier cosmic rays. As flares subside, cosmic rays intensify—yin, yang. Hathaway's prediction should not be confused with another recent forecast: A team led by physicist Mausumi Dikpata of NCAR has predicted that Cycle 24, peaking in 2011 or 2012, will be intense. Hathaway agrees: "Cycle 24 will be strong. Cycle 25 will be weak. Both of these predictions are based on the observed behavior of the conveyor belt." How do you observe a belt that plunges 200,000 km below the surface of the sun? "We do it using sunspots," Hathaway explains. Sunspots are magnetic knots that bubble up from the base of the conveyor belt, eventually popping through the surface of the sun. Astronomers have long known that sunspots have a tendency to drift—from mid solar latitudes toward the sun's equator. According to current thinking, this drift is caused by the motion of the conveyor belt. "By measuring the drift of sunspot groups," says Hathaway, "we indirectly measure the speed of the belt." Right: Hathaway monitors the speed of the Conveyor Belt by plotting the drift of sunspot groups from high to low solar latitude. This plot is called "the Butterfly Diagram." The tilt of the wings reveal the speed of the Conveyor Belt. [More] Using historical sunspot records, Hathaway has succeeded in clocking the conveyor belt as far back as 1890. The numbers are compelling: For more than a century, "the speed of the belt has been a good predictor of future solar activity." If the trend holds, Solar Cycle 25 in 2022 could be, like the belt itself, "off the bottom of the charts."