Skip to comments.
The heat is on
The Economist ^
| Sep 7th 2006
| The Economist
Posted on 09/10/2006 12:35:39 AM PDT by Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80, 81-82 next last
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
FOR most of the Earth's history, the planet has been either very cold, by our standards, or very hot. Fifty million years ago there was no ice on the poles and crocodiles lived in Wyoming. Eighteen thousand years ago there was ice two miles thick in Scotland and, because of the size of the ice sheets, the sea level was 130m lower. Ice-core studies show that in some places dramatic changes happened remarkably swiftly: temperatures rose by as much as 20°C in a decade. Then, 10,000 years ago, the wild fluctuations stopped, and the climate settled down to the balmy, stable state that the world has enjoyed since then. At about that time, perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not, mankind started to progress.
I rather doubt that, unless of course you figure the earth is no longer in the same orbit it entered and has sustained for the last three million years.
Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes Brief Introduction to the History of Climate by Richard A. Muller Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle Figure 1-1 Global warming Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years Figure 1-4 Climate of the last 100,000 years Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice In Figure 1-6, the 10 kyr years of agriculture and civilization appear as a sudden rise in temperature barely visible squeezed against the left hand axis of the plot. The temperature of 1950 is indicated by the horizontal line. As is evident from the data, civilization was created in an unusual time. There are several important features to notice in these data, all of which will be discussed further in the remainder of the book. For the last million years or so (the left most third of the plot) the oscillations have had a cycle of about 100 kyr (thousand years). That is, the enduring period of ice is broken, roughly every 100 kyr, by a brief interglacial. During this time, the terminations of the ice ages appear to be particularly abrupt, as you can see from the sudden jumps that took place near 0, 120, 320, 450, and 650 thousand years ago. This has led scientists to characterize the data as shaped like a "sawtooth," although the pattern is not perfectly regular. Figure 1-6 Climate of the last 3 million years But as we look back beyond a 1000 kyr (1 million years), the character changes completely. The cycle is much shorter (it averages 41 kyr), the amplitude is reduced, the average value is higher (indicating that the ice ages were not as intense) and there is no evidence for the sawtooth shape. These are the features that ice age theories endeavor to explain. Why did the transition take place? What are the meanings of the frequencies? (We will show that they are well-known astronomical frequencies.) In the period immediately preceding the data shown here, older than 3 million years, the temperature didnt drop below the 1950 value, and we believe that large glaciers didnt form perhaps only small ones, such as we have today in Greenland and Antarctica. |
Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity Richard A. Muller* and Gordon J. MacDonald Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle by Richard A. Muller
Figure 2. Spectral fingerprints in the vicinity of the 100 kyr peak: (a) for data from Site 607; (b) for data of the SPECMAP stack; (c) for a model with linear response to eccentricity, calculated from the results of Quinn et al. (ref 6); (d) for the nonlinear ice-sheet model of Imbrie and Imbrie (ref 22); and (e) for a model with linear response to the inclination of the Earth's orbit (measured with respect to the invariable plane). All calculations are for the period 0-600 ka. The 100 kyr peak in the data in (a) and (b) do not fit the fingerprints from the theories (c) and (d), but are a good match to the prediction from inclination in (e). return to beginning
Far more important to our present analysis, however, is the fact that the predicted 100 kyr "eccentricity line" is actually split into 95 and 125 kyr components, in serious conflict with the single narrow line seen in the climate data. The splitting of this peak into a doublet is well known theoretically (see, e.g., ref 5), but in comparisons with data the two peaks in the eccentricity were merged into a single broad peak by the poor resolution of the Blackman-Tukey algorithm (as was done, for example, in ref 8). The single narrow peak in the climate data was likewise broadened, and it appeared to match the broad eccentricity feature. *** Figure 3. Variations of the inclination vector of the Earth's orbit. The inclination i is the angle between this vector and the vector of the reference frame; Omega is the azimuthal angle = the angle of the ascending node (in astronomical jargon).. In (A), (B), and (C) the measurements are made with respect to the zodiacal (or ecliptic) frame, i.e. the frame of the current orbit of the Earth. In (D), (E), and (F) the motion has been trasformed to the invariable frame, i.e. the frame of the total angular momentum of the solar system. Note that the primary period of oscillation in the zodiacal frame (A) is 70 kyr, but in the invariable plane (D) it is 100 kyr.
There is evidence from the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (ref 39) of a narrow dust band extending only two degrees from the invariable plane. The precise location of these bands is uncertain; they may be orbiting in resonant lock with the Earth (ref 40, 41). It is not clear that these bands contain sufficient material to cause the observed climate effects. We note, however, that even small levels of accretion can scavenge greenhouse gases from the stratosphere, and cool the Earth's climate through the mechanism proposed by Hoyle (ref 30). The dust could also affect climate by seeding the formation of much larger ice crystals. The accreting material could be meteoric, originating as particles too large to give detectable infrared radiation.
Data on noctilucent clouds (mesospheric clouds strongly associated with the effects of high meteors and high altitude dust) supports the hypothesis that accretion increase significantly when the Earth passes through the invariable plane. As shown in Figure 6, a strong peak in the number of observed noctilucent clouds occurs on about July 9 in the northern hemisphere (ref 41, 42) within about a day of the date when the Earth passes through the invariable plane (indicated with an arrow). In the southern hemisphere the peak is approximately on January 9, also consistent with the invariable plane passage, but the data are sparse. The coincidence of the peaks of the clouds with the passage through the invariable plane had not previously been noticed, and it supports the contention that there is a peak in accretion at these times. On about the same date there is a similarly narrow peak is observed in the number of polar mesospheric clouds (ref43) and there is a broad peak in total meteoric flux (ref 44). It is therefore possible that it is the trail of meteors in the upper atmosphere, rather than dust, that is responsible for the climate effects.
Fig 6. Frequency of noctilucent clouds vs. day of year, in (A) the northern hemisphere, and in (B) the sourthern hemisphere (ref 41, 42). The arrows indicate the dates when the earth passes through the invariable plane. The coincidence of these dates with the maxima in the noctilucent clouds suggests the presence of a thin ring around the sun. Peaks on the same dates are seen in Polar mesospheric clouds (ref 44) and in radar counts of meteors.
|
http://newton.ex.ac.uk/aip/physnews.252.html#1
INTERPLANETARY DUST PARTICLES (IDPs) are deposited on the Earth at the rate of about 10,000 tons per year. Does this have any effect on climate? Scientists at Caltech have found that ancient samples of helium-3 (coming mostly from IDPs) in oceanic sediments exhibit a 100,000-year periodicity. The researchers assert that their data, taken along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, support a recently enunciated idea that Earth's orbital inclination varies with a 100-kyr period; this notion in turn had been broached as an explanation for a similar periodicity in the succession of ice ages. (K.A. Farley and D.B. Patterson, Nature, 7 December 1995.)
Farley & Patterson 1998, http://www.elsevier.com/gej-ng/10/20/36/33/37/32/abstract.html
Farley http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~farley/
Farley http://www.elsevier.nl/gej-ng/10/18/23/54/21/49/abstract.html
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/pr96/dec96/noaa96-78.html
ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE DURING LAST GLACIAL PERIOD COULD BE TIED TO DUST-INDUCED REGIONAL WARMING
Preliminary new evidence suggests that periodic increases in atmospheric dust concentrations during the glacial periods of the last 100,000 years may have resulted in significant regional warming, and that this warming may have triggered the abrupt climatic changes observed in paleoclimate records, according to a scientist at the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Current scientific thinking is that the dust concentrations contributed to global cooling.
http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/dn9228-mysterious-glowing-clouds-targeted-by-nasa.html
Mysterious glowing clouds targeted by NASA
26 May, 2006
High-altitude noctilucent clouds have been mysteriously spreading around the world in recent years (Image: NASA/JSC/ES and IA)
41
posted on
09/10/2006 3:25:43 AM PDT
by
ancient_geezer
(Don't reform it, Replace it.)
To: Invisible Gorilla
To: DB
It's called water vapor. LOL. Wanted to bump that.
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
44
posted on
09/10/2006 4:24:20 AM PDT
by
metesky
("Brethren, leave us go amongst them." Rev. Capt. Samuel Johnston Clayton - Ward Bond- The Searchers)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
The volitile emissions of the ink required for this drivel is a major contributor. When combined with the poitical hot air from algore the gaseous compound rejects radiation.
45
posted on
09/10/2006 4:27:54 AM PDT
by
bert
(K.E. N.P. We will screw you inshallah)
To: Zeppo
a worldwide network of prayer circles led by shamans and wizards. In fact, at only a small marginal increase in cost, we could add tom-tom drummers to the prayer circles and boost their effectiveness by an order of magnitude. I like your proposal and heartily endorse it. Now, if we can figure out a way for liberals to be exclusively taxed for this service.
46
posted on
09/10/2006 5:04:17 AM PDT
by
NaughtiusMaximus
(If DemocRATS are elected they are going to kill Christmas.)
To: ancient_geezer
Excellent information! Even I learned something. The real question is: Since the world gets hotter and colder all the time, what is the most desirable temperature? A little hotter? A little colder? My wife wants it a little hotter! For those that want it a little colder, a satellite at L-1 would do the trick. The climate is very sensitive to the intensity of the sun. Currently, I ascribe to the theory that methane has moderated the wild swings in temperature. So actually, man has made the climate better for man. If the world started getting colder in the future, how could we keep my wife happy and turn up the temperature? Good question! Nope, increasing CO2 wouldn't do it. Increasing the reflectivity of the moon might be an interesting though experiment.
Next time that you meet a rabid "the ice caps are melting" liberal, make a little money. Put ice and water in a glass and fill it right up to the brim. This is your very own North Pole ice cap. Bet them that when the ice melts, it will not overflow. (Unconfined ice displaces the exact amount of water as it would if it was liquid.)
To: ancient_geezer
Bookmark Bump.
Good info; thanks.
48
posted on
09/10/2006 5:18:35 AM PDT
by
brityank
(The more I learn about the Constitution, the more I realise this Government is UNconstitutional.)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
49
posted on
09/10/2006 5:30:43 AM PDT
by
Frwy
(Eternity without Jesus is a hell-of-a long time.)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
Looks to me like it'll be an early and very cold winter here in MN. I had to drag out my sweatshirts already this week. If there's gonna be global warming, send me some!
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
I am suprised they allowed that second paragraph to go to print. They took a survey?
It goes downhill from there
But the first paragraph is a keeper.
51
posted on
09/10/2006 5:41:25 AM PDT
by
winodog
(Buchanan is the new Perot.)
To: winodog
I take that back. I just reread that first one and it wont fly either. Why would a "serious" paper allow this garbage?
52
posted on
09/10/2006 5:43:41 AM PDT
by
winodog
(Buchanan is the new Perot.)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
****Do you know what Pascal's wager is?****
I do, I do.
It's $4.00 an hour because Pascal is an illegal!
53
posted on
09/10/2006 5:45:12 AM PDT
by
Condor51
("Alot" is NOT a word and doesn't mean "many". It is 'a lot', two separate words.)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
Afterall, this is more about science and economics than about partisan politics. This ALL about partisan politics and economics (as in destroying the economies of the West) and nothing about science.
Twenty years ago the same quality of "scientists" were telling us we were absolutely causing a brand new ice age--and they were just as positive about that as they are about global warming.
Check out some of the global warming sales groups like that group of "Concerned Scientists". See how many of their "scientists" have degrees in Library Science, Psychology, Sociology, etc. and how few in the hard sciences.
Are you aware that over 17,000 REAL scientists have signed a petition questioning the authenticity of the science re: global warming?
54
posted on
09/10/2006 5:49:30 AM PDT
by
Sal
(Once you know they sold USA out to Red China, what do you think they would NOT do?)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
If global warming is to be blamed on green house gases then why are the rest of the planets in the solar system heating up also?
Scientist were recently surprised to find the unexpected temperatures on Pluto. Of course we should completely ignore that old Bible that states that in the end times power would be given to the sun to scorch men with fire.
So if indeed that is true and we are entering that phase of history I doubt that a giant pair of sun glasses placed on the Earth is going to help much.
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
"Regardless, at least using less oil is good for security."I disagree. Having a strong economy is the key to our security. That is how we won WWII and how we defeated the Soviet Union.
The most important thing for our economy is the use of the most economical source of energy. Right now that is oil. Doesn't matter if it comes from Saudi or Alaska or Nigeria.
56
posted on
09/10/2006 6:56:41 AM PDT
by
Boss_Jim_Gettys
(Willing to compromise...NOT)
To: Outland
I'll take an interest when someone proves to me that 0.04% of the atmosphere can produce more than a negligible warming impact on the remaning 99.96%. BTTT
57
posted on
09/10/2006 6:58:04 AM PDT
by
thackney
(life is fragile, handle with prayer)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
at least using less oil is good for security No, paying for a more expensive fuel while others use a more economical one is not good for our security. Producing our own resources would be good for our security. Instead we let environmentalists and democrats hold us hostage while we fund our enemies.
58
posted on
09/10/2006 7:00:42 AM PDT
by
thackney
(life is fragile, handle with prayer)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
"The cost that would be associated with action in this Pascal's wager is far below the cost of being wrong."
Given that the article states that climate has changed dramatically, and with absolutely NO HUMAN INFLUENCES IN THE PAST, on what basis do you justify human changes being suddenly so significant?
Your analogy argument using insurance costs is best seen in terms of buying a policy alleging to insure against fire where there are no data regarding future fire frequencies or intensities, where there are no data regarding fire protection mechanisms, and there there is absolutely no fire suppression mechanism possible ( barring Divine Intervention on the behalf of the insured).
Not a policy with much appeal to any but the socialism impaired, would be my assumption.
Regarding your statement: "Afterall, this is more about science and economics than about partisan politics.", I can only ask that you add a keyboard alert to such posts in the future. I nearly spilled my coffee laughing at that line.
As for spending money to read such trash, may I suggest keeping your money securely in your bank (or other investments) and Google-ing climate papers by Dr. Patrick Michaels? Also read Professor Linzden (MIT). More data, no Libroid BS factor, peer reviewed, and available free.
59
posted on
09/10/2006 7:27:40 AM PDT
by
GladesGuru
(In a society predicated upon Liberty, it is essential to examine principles, - -)
To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
which just so happened to coincide with an exponential increase in human burning of fossil fuelsIt also coincides with an exponential increase in the number of humans that die every year. So, clearly, human death causes global warming. It also coincides with an exponential decrease in the number of pirates in the world. So, clearly, piracy was keeping global warming in check.
Association isn't causation, my FRiend.
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80, 81-82 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson