Peak oil theorists don't know Jack ( It Could Increase U.S. Reserves by 50% )

Globe and Mail ^ | 5 September 2006 | PATRICK BRETHOUR

[RobbyS]

Except the curve you plot may have a much longer period than you seem to admit. I admit that all good things must come to an end; civilizational needs always seems to outstrip their resources. BUT the question is WHEN!

[GregoryFul]

I admit that I did not generate the curve. Dr. M. King Hubbert developed the statistics based on reserves discovery that predicted the production curve - and the history of US production pretty well fell in line with his predictions. Others have extended Hubbert's work to world oil production. Their prediction is peak oil about now or in a couple of years.

[RobbyS]

Those who concocted such curves back in the 1920s found that their extrapolations were wrong. There are too many unknowns, We are not even sure what the source of oil is. If it is ultimately a geological product, maybe a result of micoorganisms working in rock, then it will be found in places where they are not presently looking. Going back, remember they once thought it would be found only under salt domes.

[GregoryFul]

There are good reasons that oil is only found in very specific geological formations. Unless there is a dome shaped impervious capstone, the oil will escape to the surface, and burn or evaporate. Unless there is a porous reservoir beneath the capstone, oil will not flow from the reservoir. Without a pressured aquifer beneath the reservoir the oil will not be trapped under the dome.

As to abiotic oil - it would still have to collect in these formations, and the formations that we have been pumping are not refilling, so the seepage from the deep hot biosphere is not sufficient to stave off peak oil.

[RobbyS]

The East Texas field does not have this configuration, but is layered.

[BnBlFlag]

Boaters in the Houston/Galveston area have been complaining that the Ethanol now being added to gasoline here is screwing up their outboards big time.

[Petronski]

LOL