http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=so06allison
This is an excellent analysis from the current edition of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists which is not the rather sensationalistic treatment that we generally get from NEIN and WND.
That is a must read for anyone on this thread or interested in the subject IMO. Prior to 9/11 every year I have been buying all better news magazines that run features on it. This was one issue that I picked up at the store in the last few weeks.
Graham Allison should not be ignored as far as I am concerned. Say what you want about Harvard, but there are some well read people there. His book
Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe is also a must read and was highlighted on
TM #29.