Originally the NHC was way west, and if raygun was ahead of them in calling it more correctly to the east, more power to him.
Later the NHC had it running into the GOM and then a right into Tampa area and you know the rest.
Skeeterbite or some other site has an animated gif of all the models over time how they change. Pretty wild gif. Someone here will remember it. I bookmarked it, but I'd need a while to find it.
Thanks again for your initial concern and comments.
Call off the dogs, I just found it!
Skeetobite Weather Animated Storm Model Plots for Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)
http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2006&storm=5
It takes a while to load as there over 100 images in the loop. But it is worth it. Mother Nature outfoxing the NHC and other promets.