Posted on 08/29/2006 7:30:29 AM PDT by meandog
I forgot "gun-totin'".
I predict we will lose the House narrowly and retain the Senate by a thin margin.
Did you work Ohio in Nov/04?
No.
I really hope you're right...it would be a good thing for America...
That's called politics.
CT, thought you'd be interested in some of this talk about '04.
Seriously, most people know this. If you drive a Subaru there is a 95% chance you are a Democrat. The addition of the Sierra Club thing just raises that probability to 100%.Seems obvious? What about the Suburu buyer who subscribes to hunting magazines? Using consumer data for get-out-the-vote drives is genius. It's a new world in advertising, and old ways ain't working, and the same for politics. The Dim strategy has been same-old mailing to the same-old lists, now enhanced by email. But they're not turning anyone new. Matching votes and consumer data reveals specific opportunities that mailing lists can never show.
"Getting out the vote" has been turned upside down. Rove & Co. are using business techniques to identify clients and hit 'em up hard. When trying to identify new clients, you're wasting your time selling to old clients. They need reinforcement, yes, and, yes, you can bring out old clients who haven't been buying, but the trick is turn the non-buyers. Key to it is purchasing tendency. Identifying them by consumer practices seems obvious, but it's entirely new. No one pre-Rove joined consumer and voting patterns. Yes, it is new -- and effective -- and expensive.
Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, Dingy Harry Reid, Teddy the Hut, Schmuckie Schumer, Turban Durbin, Pinch Sulzberger and Alec Baldwin et al in an Ultimate Fighting Match.
Last man (or woman...or thing) standing wins the Minority Leadership. And the keys to George Soros' limo...
If you look at the data on turn out the Democrat turn out has shown a constant growth. But the Republican turn out is all over the place .. it climbed to 54 million in 1984 and did not exceed that until 2004.
In a more practical sense when it comes down to canvasing, we are only canvasing precincts where at least 70 percent of the voters will vote Republican.
The pollsters are wrong about the turn out. They look upon the 2004 turn out as an aberration. After all, as my column documents, Republican turn out goes up and it also goes down. But that is the past.. and the turn out will not be as big as 2004, but it will be a lot bigger than 2002.
The polls are way off... because they are under sampling Republicans. And short of a special situation like the Taft situation in Ohio, Republicans will do quite well.
There is also the "Democrat spread the wealth plan" of Dean. He is putting money up for all house and senate races. Rove does not throw good money after bad. He does not try to effect the impossible dream. He puts the money where the most votes are and in the races we have a good chance to win.
There is also a tendency to put the campaign down to just an issue... like the war on terror. It is quite possible to determine what issues are important to which voters from the data in that data bank. The national issues make the national news, but the war is not the only issue. There are lots of people who are motivated by gun control, abortion, and moral values. Those issues are used on targeted voters.
Good post. I'd only add that it's not just the amount of money but where it's spent.
I predict we will hold the House by 5 to 7 seats and the Senate by 3 to 4 seats.
I hope you are right.
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