Indeed, exit polls are very unreliable. (As is Zogby, who clearly has a side he's rooting for.)
Do you respect Stuart Rothenberg? I do.
Yes, Stuart's pretty good, as is Charlie Cook. (Please understand this isn't anything directed at you. I just find the "GOP Massacre" predictions old and predictable. Especially given the Pubbies' improved numbers over the past two months.)
Things would have to break almost perfectly for the Dems for the GOP to lose that many seats.