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IN THE NEWS: ORLANDO SENTINEL “TV debates raise stakes: Gubernatorial hopefuls face off this week”
BY: JOHN KENNEDY AND JASON GARCIA
TALLAHASSEE -- After more than a year's worth of fish fries, candidate forums and other low-key political gatherings, the four leading contenders to succeed Gov. Jeb Bush will be beamed into Floridians' living rooms this week in a pair of television debates.
Republicans Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher square off Tuesday night, and Democrats Jim Davis and Rod Smith will spar Wednesday. The hourlong debates, originating from WEDU-TV in Tampa, will air at 8 p.m. on most public-TV stations statewide, including WMFE-Channel 24 in Orlando.
And with the Sept. 5 primaries just two weeks away, the debates could prove crucial. "Televised and well-covered debates can make a tremendous difference," said Democratic consultant Robin Rorapaugh, who managed Bill McBride's campaign for governor in 2002 but is not involved in this year's race. "Debates can create seminal moments and swing elections."
Polls show Crist and Davis leading in their respective primaries, making their first goal obvious: They must avoid missteps. But they also likely have to display the leadership skills that voters want in a chief executive.
Gallagher and Smith have even more to gain with a powerful showing, particularly in a race where perhaps one-quarter of likely Republican voters and more than half of the Democrats are still pondering whom to vote for.
Peter Dunbar, a Tallahassee lobbyist and longtime friend of Gallagher, the state's chief financial officer, said his candidate faces a formidable task in trying to narrow Crist's double-digit lead among voters.
"Tom has to give voters a reason why they might change their minds," Dunbar said. "If some unique contrast comes out of it, that will be meaningful."
But he insisted there is pressure on both Republican contenders.
"If I'm Charlie Crist, I really don't want to have this debate," Dunbar said. "Charlie doesn't want to make any mistakes."
Keeping with themes aired in TV ads and in campaign appearances, Gallagher likely will look to expand on the sharp contrasts between the candidates. Unlike Gallagher, Crist supports abortion rights, amnesty for illegal aliens, class-size limits and same-sex civil unions.
Crist has anchored his campaign to tough-on-crime themes and a sunny optimism he draws from political mentors Ronald Reagan and Connie Mack, a former Florida U.S. senator.
John "Mac" Stipanovich, an adviser to Crist, Florida's attorney general, said he expected Tuesday's Republican debate to mirror the style of the campaign so far.
He predicted that Crist, an affable Republican moderate not inclined to give detailed answers, may emerge better on television than Gallagher, who has campaigned on decidedly more conservative themes and tends to revel in the intricacies of policy.
"Gallagher will try to do the 'what's the price of milk' thing with Charlie," Stipanovich said. "But when it's over, I don't think many voters' minds will be changed. For those who do, Charlie will be their guy."
Likewise, neither Democrat is expected to stray far from stump-speech themes when taking the stage 24 hours later. Davis has campaigned hard against the existing political leadership in Tallahassee, while Smith has cast himself as a centrist candidate who can win over independents and Republicans.
Will gloves come off?
But with more Democratic than Republican voters still undecided, some strategists expect Davis and Smith to be even more aggressive in an attempt to stand out. The format for this week's debates have the candidates answering questions from a panel of reporters, but they also include up to 15 minutes during which the contenders question each other directly -- an exchange that could also help ignite sparks.
Some expect Davis, a Tampa congressman, to go after Smith's ties to the sugar industry. Often demonized by environmentalists, sugar growers have contributed extensively to Smith and groups supporting him.
By contrast, Smith will likely attack Davis' performance in Washington, where he has missed more votes than all but one other member of the 435-seat U.S. House since the start of 2005.
With so many voters undecided, "caution may not be the strategy for either candidate," Rorapaugh said. "I think there's a good chance that there'll be some fireworks." The forums would seem to favor Smith, a more engaging public speaker than Davis and someone who, as a former state prosecutor, has plenty of experience debating live and in front of audiences. But Davis, who appears to have grown increasingly comfortable on the stump over time, could be at an advantage if less is expected of him.
"I think Rod finally has to deliver on what his people have been promising for a year now: that he is far and away better than Davis," said Derek Newton, a Democratic consultant in Coral Gables. "All he [Davis] has to do is not allow Rod to deliver that punch."
Some Smith supporters are, in fact, trying to hold down expectations for their candidate. "It's very rare that somebody has a knockout punch," said Screven Watson, a Democratic strategist helping Smith. "Neither side should believe they're going to go in and knock the other one out."
Before voting Sept. 5, Floridians will get another hourlong look at the candidates in a second and final round of debates scheduled to air next week on NBC-TV stations.
Potential for missteps
While not always riveting television, Florida's on-air political debates have included some memorable moments
Four years ago, McBride stumbled badly at a televised debate with Republican Gov. Jeb Bush at the University of Central Florida. Under questioning from moderator Tim Russert of NBC, McBride was unable to put a price tag on the proposed class-size amendment central to his campaign.