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I Hate to Say, "I told you so"
What a waste of a war.

Israel dragged its name through the mud. Newly elected Israeli PM Ehud Olmert jeopardized his entire government.

I said at the very beginning of the war that Israel didn't have the will to stick out the fight to accomplish their goal: ridding southern Lebanon of Hezbollah through force. What Lebanese, the international community, and surprised Israelis learned is that a militia in a country half Israel's size - in terms of both population and landmass, with much less wealth, with only two major allies (Syria and Iran), and little international or Arab support could leave Israel scrambling for a month.

Not only did Israel not accomplish its goal, but it was attacked worse than it ever imagined.

Even more surprising, Israel - ever the UN skeptic - went running to the UN to resolve the conflict. And because of the nature of the UN battle, Lebanon came out on top.

If winning is achieving one's goals, then Israel lost.

But just because Israel lost doesn't mean that Hezbollah won. Not having any specific goals, thus not failing to accomplish them, doesn't mean that you won. Hezbollah lowered the bar so low that merely surviving meant winning, which is absolutely ridiculous. I could claim that I won this conflict.

As I said a few days into this conflict, "nothing good can come of this. It's better to stick to the National Dialogue and the slow, democratic process of bringing Hezbollah into the fold using small sticks and carrots. Israel does not have the will to keep this up."

Here's where I was wrong:

1. The jury's still out about post-conflict Hezbollah power. They haven't been as empowered as the pundits claim. I don't think they'll be as empowered as I thought they would be. They've been hit very hard, even if they maintain their Shia base.

2. Iran isn't benefiting. If the international community is smart, they'll tighten the screws even more on Iran. Finally, the Arab countries are angry (and, perhaps, frightened) enough that they'll begin putting even more pressure on the Iranians.

3. Syria does not come out stronger militarily or diplomatically. The Syrians are rolling in Lebanese cash, right now. They're raking in the conflict dough brought to them by refugees. However, they're still isolated, and they've dug themselves into a deeper hole. The Saudis, Egyptians, and Jordanians were already angry with the Syrians. Now, I suspect, they're in high dudgeon.

The Arabs now understand what Lebanese anti-Syrians have been saying for so long: the Syrian regime does not bring stability. It inherently creates instability.

4. The Arabs realize that they must act. Arab governments and foreign ministers now realize they have a lot more power than they thought they had. The United States cannot solve all of their problems for them. The United States cannot be blamed for all of their problems. They now (at least I hope) truly understand that they must take sides.

As I said at the beginning of this conflict, the United States, France, the UN, Saudia Arabia, Egypt, and the Lebanese government, all working together, were unable to get Hezbollah to disarm. How can we expect Israel to achieve this goal? We can't, which is why they shouldn't have tried.

However, the Arab regimes might finally understand that if they unite around a few specific issues, they might be able to accomplish a lot more in the region than the US, France, the UN, and the Lebanese government combined.

Thank God, Prime Minister Saniora is leading Lebanon. He's got the right values, the right will, and the right connections to educate Arab regimes about what they can better do to strengthen Lebanon and the region:

1. Don't just throw money at Lebanon. Invest in Lebanese governmental institutions.

2. Pressure Syria heavily.

3. Squeeze Iran.

4. Promote Lebanese democracy by becoming more active in it. Don't use proxies to speak on your behalf. Your ambassadors can take part in shaping modern Lebanon, just as the American, French, and British ambassadors do. And your word carries more weight than theirs since it's you who are backing your words with billions of dollars.

Note this comment:

Charles,
One thing is sure. This is only a pause in the war and when it breaks out again it will involve Syria and Iran and the death and destruction will be extreme.
The Bush peace plan led to this war because it caused Israel to be percieved as weak by her enemies.
ALL DETERRENCE WAS LOST ,thanks to the Bush pressure on Israel to surrender land and make suicidal gestures for no peace.
All these years Israel religiously followed Olso and the Road Map for peace .Instead of peace war explodes freom every corner.
By weak acts of appeasment and bending to pressure from a bad friend to surrender their land to Islamic terrorists ,Israel planted the seeds of war.
Now the harvest of hell from this evil Road Map covenant with death and hell fall upon Israel as they are percieved as weak and ripe for destruction .
Israel has lost all the deterrence it ever had by capitulating to U.S. pressure to surrender and appease for a phony peace process.
Satan has succeeded in peace against Israel where he could not thru past war's

So what Bush and Rice accomplished by their temporary cessation of hostilities resolution in the U.N. bodes ill for planet earth.
A weak P.M.Olmert begins to get heat for his confused war and failure to rescue the kidnapped IDF soldiers. Israel elected losers in their last election and now many voters begin to see the error of their ways.
IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz was selling his stock portfolio at 12:00 pm July 12th and both left and right are calling for his resignation.
The corrupt Israeli politicians were drunk on the fumes of the failed Bush Road Map and were caught unprepared for war.
THEY'RE FINISHED !
Hopefully this war will spell the end of Kadima and the party of appeasment and surrender and Israel will prepare for all out war with the Islamic hordes which approaches.
Iran and Syria are more excited than ever about finishing their final solution of Israel.
Here's a snippet of what even the Israeli left are saying ;
Mr. Prime Minister, establish a national emergency government that will determine the mistakes we made for years that led to this war," Itzik said. "This [new] government must prepare us for the next war. This government will express the consensus among the people over our just execution of this war. This is the national call to readiness of us all."

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