Smoke trails would be at the whim of the wind and it's heat not smoke that a missile homes in on.
True, except that the timeframe covered by that single photo is most likely just over a single second. Any wind that effects the smoke of one of those flares would effect the smoke of all of those flares in exactly the same way. And I'm not sure what your point is regarding what missiles home in on. The flares are made to burn at the same intensity and rate creating equal heat sources and as a by product, equal amounts of smoke. Here is another picture of F-16's dispensing flares. This photo is MUCH higher resolution and taken at a much closer range. But despite that, notice how similar the smoke trails of the flares are.
My whole point is that when you've got someone cornered, hit him with your best shots. Don't push something that may or may not be phony. This clown has made bigger screw ups than anything you might be able to pull out of his crappy F-16 photo.