Posted on 08/03/2006 12:06:33 PM PDT by calcowgirl
So far as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and his re-election campaign team are concerned, President Bush's middle initial might as well stand for “Who?”
With Bush's popularity near rock bottom and Republicans across the country fearing a shellacking in the Nov. 7 election, Democrats are trying at every turn to tie the Republican governor to the president.
State Treasurer Phil Angelides, the Democratic nominee for governor, routinely rails against “Bush-Schwarzenegger” policies and accuses the governor of complicity with federal actions that don't play well with California voters.
For his part, Schwarzenegger hardly mentions the president's name unless to criticize a Bush administration policy as publicly as possible.
In recent weeks, Schwarzenegger has taken issue with the White House and congressional Republicans over stem cell research, offshore oil drilling, patrolling the border and global warming.
It was global warming that resulted in the photograph of Schwarzenegger and British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Monday agreeing in Long Beach that California and Britain would conduct joint research projects into greenhouse gases and clean-burning fuels.
Even before the joint news conference, Angelides denounced it as a meaningless campaign “photo op.”
“There's nothing solid here, nothing specific that reduces greenhouse gases,” the Democrat said.
Whatever the substance of the agreement, the image was one seen around the world, seeming to show Schwarzenegger conducting international summitry almost as if he were the president.
“He did everything he could to look internationally potent and as far away from Bush as possible,” said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at California State University Sacramento. “It was a coup.”
Earlier that day, Schwarzenegger administration officials told reporters that the event should not be interpreted as the governor making an end run around the Bush administration. The governor did not follow the script.
“We see that there is not great leadership from the federal government when it comes to protecting the environment. We know there is global warming, so we should stop it,” Schwarzenegger said with a smiling Blair at his side.
There may be a heavy element of theatrics in all of this, but they're potentially critical theatrics.
A recent statewide poll conducted by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University showed a strong correlation between voters' approval of Bush and their preference in the contest for governor.
Voters who said they thought Bush was doing a good job favored Schwarzenegger over Angelides 75 percent to 10 percent. Voters who disapproved of the job Bush was doing preferred Angelides 53 percent to 27 percent.
“People who are really not happy with Bush are even less likely to vote for Schwarzenegger,” said Melinda Jackson, a professor of political science at San Jose State.
“The more Schwarzenegger is tied to Bush in the voters' minds, the worse it is for him. The more he can distance himself from the president, the better it is for him.”
Just yesterday, the governor sent a letter to Bush urging greater assistance in helping low-income Californians pay rising utility bills during this record-hot summer. The implication is that California's allotment for such funds – from a program run by the Bush administration – falls short. The letter is co-authored not by another prominent Republican but Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat who has a favorable image among 60 percent of likely California voters, according to a Field Poll released today.
The Angelides campaign has had difficulty gaining traction since the June primary. But Democrats predict an anti-Republican backlash fueled by Bush's unpopularity, the war in Iraq and rising gas prices will sweep Schwarzenegger out of the governor's office.
“Only a completely blind Republican would deny there's a potential tsunami against the Republicans this fall,” said Bob Mulholland, senior adviser to the Angelides campaign. “If you look at his attempted positionings over the last few weeks, clearly he's worried about it.”
Not everybody in the Angelides camp is as bullish on the Bush backlash potential.
“I don't have as much faith in that tsunami as Bob does,” said Angelides media consultant Bill Carrick. “I think we have to create our own tsunami. But it will be a bad year for Republicans.”
Republican strategist Dan Schnur recalled how Republican hopes for a similar dynamic were dashed in 1998 when he was an adviser to Dan Lungren, the Republican nominee for governor who was trounced by Democrat Gray Davis.
“I'm one of the guys who spent the fall of 1998 trying to tie Gray Davis to the Lewinsky scandal,” he said. “It didn't work then and it's hard to see it working now.”
Political scientists say that governor's races are typically driven by state issues and far less subject to national partisan trends than races for Congress.
“It's something to watch, but it's possible that Schwarzenegger could escape most of the damage if there is a Democratic tsunami,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “Voting for governor is different. Nationwide, you see a fair number of Republican governors in Democratic states and Republican governors in Democratic states.”
Garry South, a critic of Angelides who directed state Controller Steve Westly's campaign for the Democratic nomination, denounced the anti-Bush strategy as “ludicrous.” He said that voters are well aware of Schwarzenegger's differences with Bush on abortion, gun control, gay rights and environmental policy.
“Bush is not going to be helpful to Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, but it's not for the reason that Angelides thinks,” South said. “It's not that Californians are so stupid that they're going to confuse Arnold Schwarzenegger with George Bush. It's that the Republican base is demoralized.”
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Schwarzenegger re-election campaign, said he's mindful of the potential anti-Republican tide, but not overly worried about it.
Although Dowd was a top adviser to Bush's 2004 re-election campaign and still counts himself a Bush loyalist, he is more than willing to help Schwarzenegger distance himself from the president.
“When the opportunity presents itself to show he's an independent leader, we're fine with that,” Dowd said. “In California, they respect that.”
Keep talking Democrats. The more you puff up expectations of a "Democrat Tsunami" the louder you squeals will be when it does not materialize.
Whatever he needs to do to get elected. I'll be voting for him and McClintock.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who greeted President Bush in Mountain View in April, has drawn sharp distinctions between himself and the Bush administration in recent weeks.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and British Prime Minister Tony Blair discussed their global warming pact at the Port of Long Beach on Monday.
And how pray-tell is our "pro-business" governor proposing to stop" so-called global warming?
Welcome to Free Republic!
Whatever dude. Then the next election -just so they can win - the pubbies can put up Gray Davis. I, however, will not be voting in this corrupt two-party cartel until they start representing me.
Bash the Gov all you want. He will win this election, using an unconventional populist strategy. He's way smarter than Jesse Ventura, and plotted out a risky path to victory.
He's not always our friend, but he'll be there to stop the extreme damage that a Dem gov. would undoubtably do to this state. In his heart, I think he knows that global warming is just a red-herring way to split the liberal vote.
He's going to set up air conditioners all along the CA border, this will mitigate the effects of global warming in CA. The rest of the country and world can take care of themselves.
What a putz. Voting for McClintock but not this clown.
| bash |
bash "to strike violently," 1641, perhaps of Scand. origin (cf. Swed. basa "to baste, whip, flog, lash," Da. baske "to beat, strike, cudgel"), from O.N. *basca "to strike;" or the whole group may be independently derived and echoic. Fig. sense of "abuse verbally or in writing" is from 1948. On a bash "on a drunken spree" is slang from 1901, which gave the word its sense of "party."
This isn't one of those threads.
ROFL! I didn't know that one!
Somehow, I don't see posting an article from a major news source as fitting the definition.
The references to Bush by our dear Governor (R) may, however, fit the definition.
Marvels of modern science, huh?
If Arnold wins again, California should be more likely to elect another republican after him (like the Lt. Gov, which should be McClintock)
please tell me what looks good on the horizon for us in the golden state?
arnold would have a "D" on his name, but he wouldn't get elected...
On what basis do you make this assertion? I believe history would tell us otherwise.
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