I agree with your analysis. Even in refugee camps under constant artillery bombardment women can and will have babies. Nature will be served, and this is true for the young women described in this article as well. If state handouts change their attitudes towards the process, then maybe the handouts should stop, or be radically altered.
That said, what do you think of the Guardian quote? I sometimes wonder if a computer has been programmed to spit out this stuff. How exactly is having a child out of wedlock and on the dole the "moral" choice? What does "moral" mean to the author? I'm not sure I want to know what "reasonable" means to him or her.
The author's given name is Theodore. I haven't encountered any females with that moniker. Dr. Dalrymple is a physician and conservative commentator. He has worked in the British prison system. He may have been trained as a psychiatrist. Here's another sample of his writing.
A Little Social Experiment - On a London street, “social” housing encourages antisocial egotism.