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To: gondramB; bkwells

But we need to carefully monitor the situation - we're already at a 100,000 year high and IF the current trend continues over the next few decades we could break the 400,000 year high.

The trend into the break downward over the last 3kyrs in the 100ky cycle is of real concern for the longterm of mankind and the ecosystem in which we have prospered.

 

Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years

Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years

 

 

Breaking upward is not even in the cards as Eath's obital inclination leaves the lower quadrants of the ecliptic frame sustaining the current interglacial period.

 

 

Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity
Richard A. Muller* and Gordon J. MacDonald

Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle
by Richard A. Muller

Figure 3. Variations of the inclination vector of the Earth's orbit. The inclination i is the angle between this vector and the vector of the reference frame; Omega is the azimuthal angle = the angle of the ascending node (in astronomical jargon).. In (A), (B), and (C) the measurements are made with respect to the zodiacal (or ecliptic) frame, i.e. the frame of the current orbit of the Earth. In (D), (E), and (F) the motion has been trasformed to the invariable frame, i.e. the frame of the total angular momentum of the solar system. Note that the primary period of oscillation in the zodiacal frame (A) is 70 kyr, but in the invariable plane (D) it is 100 kyr.

 

But none of this proves reducing CO2 will help.

Guaranteed removing CO2, as astrophysical clock moves forward in its inevitable dance about the solar mean plane, will be of no avail whatever in fact it could be outright counterproductive were the effect of CO2 be of any consequence at all against the major natural cycles at play.

33 posted on 07/25/2006 7:55:59 PM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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To: ancient_geezer

>>Breaking upward is not even in the cards as Eath's obital inclination leaves the lower quadrants of the ecliptic frame sustaining the current interglacial period.<<

I sure hope you are right. Most of the MIT/CalTech types I talk to aren't so confident about that.

Frankly, all I want out of this debate (in the country, not just between Freepers) is an agreement not to cripple the economy without a great deal more human causation evidence together with a much higher level of confidence that global temperatures will continue at the current delta.

Among Freepers, my goals are higher, I think those of us in Georgia should get together, drink some beer and discuss it... :)


35 posted on 07/25/2006 8:05:37 PM PDT by gondramB (The options on the table have been there from the beginning. Withdraw and fail or commit and succeed)
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