"I guess it depends on the military and political situation once the operations in the Bint Jubayl district is over. Are there still rockets coming in? Is there a growing anti-Hezbullah coalition in Beirut? Have the UN/EU/Lebanese govt come up with a sensible peace plan? (The latter is highly unlikely.)"
Not sure how long it will take to quiet Bint Jubayl, but there seems to be no let up in rocket fire (approx 100 today), no anti-Hizbullah coalition of note being reported and definetly no sensible peace plan from UN/EU/Lebanon. I predict if we get some weak international force patroling the border with no enforcement capabilities then Olmert is and should be out
This is a situation that probably would give Israel a go ahead to continue.
If for no other reason than the Europeans are beginning to get cold feet. Who would provide a peace-keeping force?
Britain - overstretched with troops in both Afghanistan and in Iraq; Germany - German soldiers in the Middle East on the border of Israel - NO WAY - and that is just the German reaction; France - could possibly deign to lead the operation but that's all; Spain, Italy, Portugal - have either been bloodied in Iraq or too small; Ireland - took part in the UNIFIL - NO; Holland - not likely after what happened in Srebrencie; Belgium - maybe; Denmark, Norway, Sweden - either taking part in Iraq or just not enough troops; Finland - maybe, but usually try to stay out of foreign adventures; and then you have Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and other Eastern European countries. Maybe, but the best, the Poles are fighting in Iraq.
I think the EU will have great difficulties to find soldiers for a peace-keeping force. And even the UN and EU dilpomats have said that such a force is a prerequisite for a cease-fire.
It is getting late, my tyoing is getting worse than ever, and maybe my reasoning too.
Time to hit the sack. Just noted thought that Fitzcarraldo posted a new post with the latest martyrs. Again mostly men in their 30s or early 40s. Only one in his twenties. I think that's significant. Losing their most experienced men.
Anyway, keep fightnig the good fight.
Prayers for the soldoers in the IDF.
SB