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gentlestrength wrote:

TB: Because I think this is all part of the same thing
GB: Yeah

There it is, straight from the guys who the PDB's are written for.

I think "CE" is proper British for "Condi".

For any latecomers, here's the drill:

The Axis, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and North Korea, either have to fight and win, or be disarmed, by the US and Britain, one by one, divide and conquor.

Trouble is, the only military options open to the Axis are extreme, like closing the Gulf and bottling up all the oil, Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, rump states etc, or attacking into Iraq.

The Axis desperately need some sort of visible casus belli to do what they want (need) to do without opening themselves to charges of attacking Islamic brothers.

Israel understands this, as do all of the major players, in the Gulf, western, you name it.

As Bush predicted, the economic math forces everyone, globally, to choose sides, "you're either with us or with the terrorists". Even the UN is playing hardball trying to lure Americans into Syria for "evacuation".

Few want to see the US and Britain sitting on all the oil, even by default and terrorism takes a distant second place in their priority lists.

Israel wants Hezbollah crushed, but not necessarily at the price of giving the Axis casus belli, so they may settle for a strategy based on a limited incursion to suppress missiles only. Of course, Hezbollah will not sit still for this, and even a minimally occupying force has the right to self defense. Israel could "little bit" their way right up to the north end of the Bejkaa before all is said and done.

The desperate Axis may have to take whatever casus belli they can get, hoping to re-write the history books as global winners, so even a limited incursion risks regional involvement. For this reason, I don't expect to see Israel move until civilian allies are out of Beirut and until all missile defense assets possible are in place. The Golan threat axis has to be secured as well, but that has long been priority one for Israel and I expect this has already been accomplished.