[Chaguito]

I'm not a climate scientist, but I can't help seeing in the structure of the ice core graph the tendency for minima in temperature to occur before minima in CO₂, that is, a new temperature rise begins before CO₂ levels begin to rise. I recognize that the data may not be precise, but there is a lot of it.

I haven't refreshed for a while, so you may have already responded, but I'll ask again, is it shown unequivocally that the correlation implicates carbon dioxide as a cause of temperature rise? or vice versa?

[palmer]

is it shown unequivocally that the correlation implicates carbon dioxide as a cause of temperature rise? or vice versa?

There are some unequivocal facts. CO2 absorbs heat (IR) reradiated from earth. CO2 is evenly distributed around the atmosphere so its effect is more predictable. With all other things being equal, CO2 causes warming through the greenhouse effect by trapping outgoing IR radiation. There is some debate over how much temperature rise that would cause considering CO2 alone or CO2 in combination with water vapor.

On the other side of the equation there are a few unequivocal facts. Heated water holds less CO2 so in theory heating the ocean (or even just the ocean surface) would cause atmospheric CO2 to increase. My chart in a previous post shows this effect. Again there is considerable debate about the extent of this effect.