My pleasure, and many thanks to you, Ian, for all you do here!
I'm not exactly liking how those photos so strongly refer to us and that Zawahiri has such seemingly easy access to a professional studio these days.
Controversy Over New Zawahiri Tape and Al Qaeda's Intentions
By Andrew Cochran
Last night, I posted on the newest video by Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Bill Roggio and I have updated it frequently since then. I wanted to post this separate note to report that Evan Kohlmann and other experts are noticing and generating lots of discussion about the precise translation and intent of the tape. Is Zawahiri empathizing in his tape with just the Sunni Lebanese, or also with Hezbollah, or is he even signalling the intent or desire to collaborate with Hezbollah (note some of the quotes in my post below)? Or is he just horning in on the action to raise Al Qaeda's profile and generate recruits? For many experts, the Sunni-Shia split is too great to be overcome, even by terrorists with a common desire to annihilate Israel. On the other hand, on July 16 Doug Farah posted "The Potential for a Hezbollah-al Qaeda Alliance of Convenience," with this note: "However, al Qaeda's own writings, and testimony of senior al Qaeda operatives in U.S. custody (Jamal al Fadl) recounted the extensive contacts bewtween the two organizations while bin Laden was in Sudan, including joint military and explosives training." He also pointed towards Imad Mugniya's work with both al Qaeda and Hezbollah. Magnus Ranstorp posted on July 14 and Bill Roggio posted on July 12 about Mugniya's history with Hezbollah and possible role in the current conflict. Precision in the tape translation and expert knowledge of the history of the groups and individuals are critical to the analysis of the tape and a forecast of the potential outcomes.
Zawahiri's New Message: A Landmark Call for Unity or A Tempest in a Teapot?
By Evan Kohlmann
Many observers of the recent violence in Lebanon wondered if and when Sunni Muslims -- particularly Al-Qaida -- might respond sympathetically to their Shiite brethren among Hezbollah in south Lebanon. Some have quickly jumped at the news of a new video from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri discussing the conflict in Lebanon as incontrovertible evidence of a "seismic shift" within the Muslim world towards a united Shiite-Sunni front against Israel and the West.
However, once again, it would behoove us all to listen to the language and words coming from Al-Qaida supporters and sympathizers, rather than trying to interpret Zawahiri's speech from a outside Western perspective. The truth is, within the community that supports Al-Qaida, there is no precise consensus yet on the meaning of Zawahiri's speech. However, the one comment that seems to resonate most frequently among extremist Sunnis is that, in no way, does this video take away from the dire, existential conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. At a maximum, this is being termed a public relations move by Al-Qaida intended to encourage its operatives to temporarily focus their anger on America and its allies, and waiting until later to deliver the same violent fate to the Shiites. At a minimum, others are suggesting that Zawahiri is merely encouraging Sunni Muslims to travel to Lebanon in order to fight Israel--separately from the Shiites--just as they did in Iraq beginning in 2003. In other words, Zawahiri is encouraging the development of a fully-functioning independent Al-Qaida unit in Lebanon, not its merging with Hezbollah.
This discussion will no doubt continue to roil in the coming days -- and observers would be wise to carefully pay attention to the actual words of Al-Qaida's leaders and supporters rather than relying on diluted media interpretations or alternatively our own estranged theoretical perspectives.
http://counterterrorismblog.org/