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To: Torie
:-}

I figured they went to get the 'A' players. But they never came back. And then you showed up.

Now I am very, very suspicious. (gap toothed grin)

Bilbray or what'shername? And by how much?

I'm checking your bonafides. See if you're still as good as ever.

Wife sleeping very early tonight. Not feeling well but nothing serious. So here I am, loaded for bear, or wolves, or annoying squirrels. I can handle any of 'em.

Did you know that in 16 of the 18 open seats for Congresscritter that Bush won by more than 59-41. That's a high bar for the dem wannabes, no?

236 posted on 06/05/2006 6:19:33 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07

Bilbray or what'shername? And by how much?

[Tossup, but if I had to guess, Bilbray by 2%. Busby is dumb, and the recent flap over her comment that you don't need papers to vote, gets the word out a bit more about that.]

I'm checking your bonafides. See if you're still as good as ever.

Wife sleeping very early tonight. Not feeling well but nothing serious. So here I am, loaded for bear, or wolves, or annoying squirrels. I can handle any of 'em.

Did you know that in 16 of the 18 open seats for Congresscritter that Bush won by more than 59-41. That's a high bar for the dem wannabes, no?

[Yes, but the Dems have enough Pubbie incumbents in their cross hairs to get there I think. A lot of the incumbents in trouble are in marginal seats, or are tainted, or have a strong candidate against them, like Soudrel (the Bush numbers in Indiana are more reliable for a partisan baseline than Texas, but less reliable than most places), or are incumbents that have always been controversial and ideosyncratic like Hostettler. I will email you a spreadsheet that ranks the seats by Bush margins, with a numbers beside those I think might well go, as weak leans or tossups.]


245 posted on 06/05/2006 7:01:02 PM PDT by Torie
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To: jwalsh07

By the way, I count 7 open seats that Bush carried by less than 59%, and it is no accident that they are all in play: Cunningham (which I forgot to check), and then up the line, Nussle, Beauprez, Boehlert, Koble, Hyde, and Kennedy. It is no accident that all of those seats are seriously contested, with probably the first four having the Dem as the favorite, although one might argue about the Boehlert seat.


251 posted on 06/05/2006 7:23:56 PM PDT by Torie
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