I have been hearing the exact same statements just like the one you just made since early 2004.
Irrational optimism on Iraq IMHO has been the biggest thing that has discredited the administration and many pro-war supporters not the failure to find WMDs or anything else.
When I heard Cheney say the insurgency was in its last throws I cringed.
You want a more reality based look of what is going on behind the scenes there are a number of good articles.
http://time-proxy.yaga.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1189231,00.html
In said letter the writer complains of have only 100 Al Qaeda members in all of Baghdad a city of 5 MILLION....yes that many can cause mischief....we are seeing their handy work on the news today.....so lets stop with the doom and gloom.
And please stop citing TIME as a source.