REPORT: HUMAN-TO-HUMAN BIRD FLU SUSPECTED IN INDONESIA

http://www.drudgereport.com ^

[utvolsfan13]

Linked on drudge.. It wouldn't let me link it directly to the article

[kAcknor]

First?

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!

;)

[satchmodog9]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia here you go. I guess Bloomberg scooped Drudge by about four days.

[MarcusTulliusCicero]

``These viruses mutate all the time and it's difficult to know what the mutations mean,'' Cheng said.

My God! An actual statement of fact!

[steveegg]

You did it wrong. See Laz for lessons :-)

[pax_et_bonum]

Quarantine this area now.

[sphinx]

SIx out of seven died. The enviros will be getting their hopes up again.

[DJtex]

The fatality rate is so scary: 6 of 7 dead. I read somewhere that the virus will have to get a bit milder to be really dangerous. If you kill 80-100% on contact, the flu will be limited to pockets of disease--like Ebola. Ebola kills so efficiently that it doesn't spread very effectively.

The Spanish Flu killed 20-30% of those who contracted it. Also, it killed younger people more than older. The young people's strong immune system went totally overboard and killed them in one day a lot of the time.

[little jeremiah]

Okay, little list. A new article.

[Gritty]

The case fatality rate for the Indonesian strain stands at 88%, according to WHO. Of course, that is a small sample. However, this Indonesian strain seems to be a particularly virulent strain. Many of those who died had intensive hospital care and still didn't make it.

This is not a good sign. Hopefully, the antivirals the US is immediately sending from our stockpile will contain it and it will burn out.

[little jeremiah]

All the figures I've read of the mortality rate of the 1918 flu are much lower, around 5%. Regular garden variety flu is much less than that, and kills about 36,000 people in the US every year. A flu which is transmitted easily and kills even 5% will kill a tremendous number of people. Small pox is around 30%.

Gotta read that book "The Great Flu" or whatever it's called. If anyone knows the actual title can you ping me?

[Gritty]

...case fatality rate for the Indonesian strain stands at 88%

Actually, those above figures were for 2006 only. The overall Indonesian case fatality rate for 2005-06 is 78.6%, 33deaths/42cases (not a lot more hopeful).

The numbers apparently don't contain some of the latest deaths as WHO is very slow.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

First with the other alternative to same thing:WE ARE DOOMED!

[Screamname]

Impossible.. Algore says global warming will get us first.

[Judith Anne]

Didn't know if you had seen this.

[apillar]

Guess it's time to dig out my old copy of "The Stand"...

[blam]

"So far, studies of the Sumatran outbreak and genetic analyses of the virus don't indicate the virus has undergone major changes, Cheng said. Scientists at WHO-affiliated labs in the U.S. and Hong Kong found no evidence that the Indonesian strain of H5N1 has gained genes from pigs or humans that might change its power or spreading ability, WHO said."

Here's the defining statement in this article. This is similar to people getting it from close (handling) contact with chicken/birds. I don't think we've seen a 'shift' yet.

Some other facts: The 2005 mortality for Bird Flu was 55%, for 2006 (YTD) it is 70+%. This data is from people who were confirmed to have had H5N1 flu.

[Doe Eyes]

The case fatality rate for the Indonesian strain stands at 88%, according to WHO. Of course, that is a small sample.

There are flaws in the statistical method.

If a person catches this flu, doesn't go to the doctor and does recover, its not noted.

People who die from it are.

[blam]

"Impossible.. Algore says global warming will get us first."

Don't forget the asteroid impact forecasted for Thursday, 5-25-2006.