[Hop A Long Cassidy]

>>>"Does the GOP establishment honestly believe that by giving 30 million Hispanics (and their tens of millions of relatives) amenesty they have a chance in hell of securing even a small fraction of their vote? This amnesty would be an electoral disaster beyond their worst nightmares."

As I recall the contentious numbers, post-election polling after Bush's second election showed about 40 percent of Hispanics voted for Bush.

The highest were Cubans in Florida at around 51 percent (I faintly recall them being over 50 percent but I could be wrong), then Texas Hispanics around 45 % (less than 50 percent but not too shabby), then northeastern Hispanics (Puerto Rico?), and finally Californian/West Coast Hispanics around 35 percent. Bush only did well with Cubans. Texas Hispanics didn't go against him very much. Anyone with better recall of the statistics, please join in.

But the bulk of the Hispanics (and it's resulting average) showed that wooing Hispanics was a losing proposition because: 1) he'll never get over 50 percent and 2) by pandering to Hispanics, he loses his HUGE non-Hispanic voters. What's interesting with the Hispanic voters is the high percentage that are for controlling illegal immigration (I think they are worried for their wage rates.)

These immigration bills demonstrate bad "strategery." There is still time (but barely) to recover (shut down the border tight as a drum, clamp down on employers, etc.). But it is doubtful that the current cast of characters will admit their errors. They will blunder on with their ship of state staring directly into the beams of the lighthouse.

[Mr. Mojo]

2) by pandering to Hispanics, he loses his HUGE non-Hispanic voters.

A point that's often overlooked. They figure the voters who'd get peeved by their pandering have nowhere else to go, and that when it comes time to actually casting their votes they'll be sufficiently horrified by the Democrat nominee to automatically punch the "R" ticket. ....no matter who's on it.

They're dead wrong. Many would vote third party, many would vote Independent, and many would stay home out of protest or discouragement.

[Polybius]

The highest were Cubans in Florida at around 51 percent (I faintly recall them being over 50 percent but I could be wrong)

That's a mistake. The "Florida Hispanic vote" does not mean only the "Cuban American vote" and most non-Cubans in Florida vote Democrat. So, you have to be careful what percentage applies to what.

In 2000, the Cuban American vote was 81% for Bush.

In 2004, the Cuban American vote was 77% for Bush.

While 72 percent of Hispanics voted for President Clinton in 1996, the figure dropped to 62 percent for Al Gore in 2000, and to 54 percent for John Kerry last year. Oh yeah, and Cuban Americans are all supposed to be right-wing Republicans. But while President Bush made gains among Hispanics in the last election, his support among Cubans in Miami is headed in the opposite direction: After winning 82 percent in 2000, his support fell to 77 percent in 2004.