Bush Losing Hispanics? (GOP ship of state becoming the Titanic?)

The American Thinker ^ | May 21, 2006 | Richard Baehr

[quidnunc]

So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60-65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more. 

More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).

Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration — appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics — and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.

Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.

The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the  right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia  after Pete Wilson’s immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).

That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP’s dream of being a majority party this year.

[nosofar]

The GOP isn't smart enough to figure out that it is signing it's own death warrant by giving these illegal aliens amnesty.

There needs to be compromise. I can accept amnesty, meaning legalization, but not citizenship. If someone in another country goes to apply for immigration and the State Dept. finds out he's been living here illegally, he would be denied. But, someone who't already here illegally is approved? This is an completely unjust application of immigration law. There needs to be better enforcement of immigration laws (or repeal what we aren't willing to enforce). The two should be separate issues. If an amnesty bill is passed that includes citizenship for illegal immigrants, I'll probably not be voting Republican for a while. (I'll still vote in the primaries, though.)

[Torie]

There are very few blacks in Arizona. It is about 3%.

[photodawg]

if the debate in 2006 is not about expulsion/deportation, but rather amnesty/citizenship, where will the line be drawn in 2026?
////////////////////////////////////////////////

Debate will not center on deportation, which will not occur. the borders must be secured, and the illegals here must be penalized for being here. No jobs, no social safety net, no citizenship. Employment must be contingent on paying stiff penalties for being here illegally. If this happens many will voluntarily walk back across the border rather than live here without economic benefits. Also, police and ICE should be tough on any lawbreakers, deporting all who violate criminal statutes.

[Fruitbat]

Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.

Developing...

[Fruitbat]

Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race.

Just wait until all the illegals get to vote! It'll shoot up 10-15%. They'll dictate, along with more than enough libs, how we're going to live and I don't think there's any need to say "hold onto your wallets."

This is going to be a great election ('08) for a 3PC. Absolutely fantastic. People are so sick and tired of incumbent politicians and liars filling the halls of our political insitutions.

It's time to get rid of all these self-servants and start getting some truly public-servants in.

[photodawg]

to imply they are all monolithic in voting shows an ignorance that the author of the article wears like an anchor.
////////////////////////////////////////////////

Its not only the author, its most liberals. They think in stereotypes and generalizations, they ignore individual character and morality for vague politically correct platitudes that make them feel morally superior, but have no basis in reality. That's why conservatives get branded as racist anytime they question someones actions on moral grounds.

[hispanarepublicana]

Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.

[photodawg]

let's not start throwing around the "racism" term - I never claimed to personally know all the beliefs of every possible latino american based on nation of origin
////////////////////////////////////////////////////

What are you responding to? My post to you didn't include the racism term. I was supporting the idea that there is no monolithic "hispinic" vote. Race is not he issue, except for those who try to make it one. The issue is legal and illegal, right and wrong.Hispanic americans will respond to the illegal immigration issue as individuals according to their individual beliefs and attitudes.

[MNJohnnie]

Except of course the claims about supposed "polling data" is a complete fraud. Only 16 out of 100 Senators have an approval rating under 50%. Kyl is not one of them. Seems pretty stupid of the Screamers to pick on Kyl who is on THEIR on this issue.

Seems the Whiners believe if they can just manufacture some convincing factoid they will panic the Senate into buying their propaganda. Funny how the Antis and the Eviromentalists are using the exact same propaganda tactics. Just make up what ever claim you can dream up, scream it over and over and over and MAYBE it will magically be believed by the peons who are "too stupid" to understand the "intellectual brilliance" of the screamers.

[George W. Bush]

Bump for a great site. My guess is the libmedia will avoid all these Hispanic citizens like the plague. They might say the wrong thing and the truth would get out.

[hispanarepublicana]

My guess is the libmedia will avoid all these Hispanic citizens like the plague.

They have been so far.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster.

Anyone who believes the WaPo's polling deserves to be ridiculed, mocked, and abused.

[oceanview]

"It is simply racist to group all these diverse cultures into one group and absurd to think they all behave and vote the same"

who wrote that?

[photodawg]

It is simply racist to group all these diverse cultures into one group and absurd to think they all behave and vote the same"
///////////////////////////////////////////////

That was the point I was trying to make. It is liberals and democrats in particular, who are guilty of this stereotypic mindset. Quotas, affirmative action, racial census figures. Every individual gets crammed into some racial group and branded accordingly, and if you try to treat anyone like an individual, YOU get thrown in the most important group of all, the RACISTS.