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To me the question is how long does the IAEA procrastinate in determining the enrichment level and how long before they go public with the findings. If Iran has a parallel enrichment program--or worse yet--got highly enriched uranium from an outside source (North Korea? Pakistan? Russia? China?), we might be talking months instead of years before the Ayatollahs go Atomic.

It's always been a concern that any action against Iran may in fact already be too late if they've obtained weaponized atomic fuel one way or another.

We're closer to now confirming that possibility. Wonder what the real intelligence says on this in the government.

Actually, even if you take their 'stated' public goal and number of centrifuges they say they are going to get up to.. they could make 6-8 bombs a year.

Who knows if their 'secret' parallel program is on the same scale or magnitudes greater?

But like you said, if they just procure all the enriched they need they are virtually there. Remember the stories and reports of the missiles they were showing the other week that appeared to have been altered to deliver a nuke (about the nose and how it opens, etc).

Thats the problem with those 'estimates' on when Iran will get a bomb. 95% of the 'time' is how long it will take them to produce the enriched uranium. That depends mostly on how many centrifuges they can keep running (assuming they can't just buy it).

They could have a bomb already and just waiting for 3 before they test one, they could get one in days if the buy the stuff, or a few a year if they have a secret program further along than the public 'decoy' being used to manipulate the UN.