It is estimated that futures adds at least $30 per barrel. Estimated by whom? Certainly not those actually buying the futures, unless they're all in the habit of setting their money on fire. They believe oil prices will continue to rise; if you disagree you can bet against them and make an easy profit if you're right.
"Estimated by whom?" By some people in the oil industry...like Halbouty. They were discussing this on a local show and how a group of oil men had tried to stop the placing of oil on the futures market (because hasn't always been on the futures market) and in the course of the interview...this came out. When you run an ANALYSIS of the actual supply of oil and what it is worth...and take out the futures input...it's worth about $40 per barrel. That means speculation adds about $30 per barrel. The men in the industry have concluded (and I am sure the companies drilling and selling the oil aren't crying over it) that if they were to actually just sell a barrel as is...without any speculation at all...the price drops $30 per barrel because right now that is what the supply and demand will support.
That was their words...it's not mine. It was on KPRC...950AM.