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Too scary for me. I'm buying first line energy stocks.

ConocoPhillips is probably the most undervalued Energy stock (and compare it across other industries and you'll find Conoco's balance sheet to be among the strongest)

Cheers,

I haven't looked yet, but it's possible that the NYMEX-traded crack spreads, whether 3:2:1 or others, **might** have tradable options. If this should be the case, it really ought to be duck soup to design a profitable trade. As my futures mentor, Don Wren (who has taken multi-millions out of the futures mkts from 1965 through to today) has said over and over again to me, and I quote exactly:

''There are only three types of traders. Those who know what's going on, those who don't know but think they know, and those who don't know but don't know they don't know. You don't have to know what's going on. You have to fade all the traders in the last two groups.''

Don is a very aggressive, VERY successful trader. I'm a passive trader; as an ordinary thing, I usually intend to profit by other traders' misplaced greed. Circumstances alter cases, of course, and now I'm taking a very hard look at exploiting mispriced cracks.

All that full disclosure aside, and asking you as a pro, what can possibly be wrong about buying 1-yr straddles on a 3:2:1 crack? I've no idea where this crack might go, only that it's going to go SOME effing where, and bigtime.

I know that you're an on-the-ground spot mkt pro, and I'd very much welcome your thoughts on possible crack trades in future, if you'd care to offer any. '

I haven't looked yet, but it's possible that the NYMEX-traded crack spreads, whether 3:2:1 or others, **might** have tradable options. If this should be the case, it really ought to be duck soup to design a profitable trade. As my futures mentor, Don Wren (who has taken multi-millions out of the futures mkts from 1965 through to today) has said over and over again to me, and I quote exactly:

''There are only three types of traders. Those who know what's going on, those who don't know but think they know, and those who don't know but don't know they don't know. You don't have to know what's going on. You have to fade all the traders in the last two groups.''

Don is a very aggressive, VERY successful trader. I'm a passive trader; as an ordinary thing, I usually intend to profit by other traders' misplaced greed, as opposed to riding (say) silver, or WTI, or Brent, or whatever to the moon. Circumstances alter cases, of course, and now I'm taking a very hard look at exploiting mispriced cracks.

All that full disclosure aside, and asking you as a pro, what can possibly be wrong about buying 1-yr straddles on a 3:2:1 crack? I've no idea where the cracks **might** go, only that they're going to go SOME effing where away from present levels, and bigtime.

You're an on-the-ground spot mkt pro, and I'd very much welcome your thoughts about possibilities regarding assorted crack trades in future, if you'd care to offer any. '

Apols to you and JimRob for the double post (hangs head).