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To: SAJ
Wait for the parabolic top and the inevitable correction. Then, wait for the secondary run at the old highs -- there has been a secondary run in every parabolic bull mkt in history, bar Jan 2000 NG -- and then sell on the 2nd day down after the secondary top fails.
Too bad Jimmy Durant didn't heed your advice. Durant was the creator of General Motors (1908). By 1920 had had lost the company, regained it, then lost it again. He spent the 1920s running another car company with moderate success, and otherwise made fabulous speculating in the markets. Working with over a billion in funds from partners, he saw Oct. '29 coming and had sold out by that Aug or Sept. Then he jumped back in at the first rebound the next year. By 1932, he was spent.

His was one of the greatest plays ever. Too bad, for he could have bought back GM flat at its eight buck low in '32.

30 posted on 04/19/2006 4:08:02 PM PDT by nicollo (All economics are politics)
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To: nicollo
Unless I'm much mistaken, you'll have an opportunity twice or three times this year to see for yourself that parabolic markets behave in exactly the manner I described. In silver, almost certainly. Probably in gold. If our idiotic and feckless gov't keep screwing up, there'll be a similar situtation in one or another of the energy mkts. Sugar is a possibility, too.

FWIW, I've made a particular study of this type of market. If you have access to historical prices, you can check out the behaviour of parabolic mkts for yourself. If you haven't, you can get such access at Time & Timing. Take the free 30-day trial; you'll be astonished at what you'll learn (and at how screwy the pundits commenting on commodity prices are).

Just by the by, I'll be writing an article for (probably) Active Trader magazine on exactly this topic, trading at the end of parabolic markets, perhaps in the next week or two. The next issue (May) of Option Trader magazine will contain (feature? I hope(g!)) an article of mine on non-seasonal trading which you might perhaps find of interest.

Good trading to you!

54 posted on 04/20/2006 7:42:51 AM PDT by SAJ
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