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But it is the elections that matters at the end and winning it is the most important objective of a political party. We had this discussion before President Bush can rally the American people around him and the Republican Party just by simply ramping up the issue of Iran and its nuclear weapons and make this a very important elections issues. However I still easiest and most effective battle cry that will energize the Republican base and the independents leaning Republicans and bring them in very heavy numbers on election day is to play on a truthful element of fear: " If the democrats win the House of Representative they will impeach President Bush in times of war". This will bring the

Also the capture of one of the big three terrorists, Bin Laden Zarqawi or Zawahiri, will give President Bush at least 10 to 15 points bump.

Winning elections is the objective. The problem is that it doesn't look like Dubya has the confidence of the american people. He needs that to move his agenda forward. He doesn't have it, his agenda is stillborn. He was made a fool over the Dubai ports deal, for example. He isn't winning right now.

We haven't caught one of the big three terrorists, Bin Laden Zarqawi or Zawahiri, in 4 1/2 years. I have no idea where the conventional wisdom on FR concluded that the capture of one of these three is somehow expected (or likely) in the next 6 months. Pipe dream. It could happen, but it's not a likelihood.

Further, the 10-15 point jump for capturing any one of those guys is more wishful thinking than anything else. What's the baseline? Can you point to the capture of a big terrorist that correlated with a 10-15 point sudden jump in approval? I can't. What makes you think that 10-15 point bump will be sustained (that is, odds are that Dubya's ineptness will continue as it has for the last 9 months and bring that down quickly). You bet with the streak, not against it. FR is betting against the streak. Not wise.

Your thoughts are nice but mostly just wishful thinking, not meaningful analysis, sorry.